Despite my slight tilt towards a Yes vote (as noted in the comments to this post by a contributor to the Cedar Lounge Revolution), I’m really much more interested in the processes of the Lisbon Treaty Referendum than in the issues. The reason for that? As a friend said to me at the weekend, ‘…do you think if it’s passed or not it’ll make a blind bit of difference?’ He meant that in the global rather than the local sense, in that if passed it would be passed and if not we would see the more ‘difficult’ aspects of the Treaty appear in new - and probably less provocative - guise over the next number of years, while the less tricky elements would be integrated as and when.

I tend to think he’s right. So in some respects that makes the local political ramifications that are emerging of greater interest.

For a start let’s consider once more the new profile of Fine Gael. All is - of course - sweetness and light this week after the previous spats. The Fine Gael lamb lies down with the Fianna Fáil lion and the Labour . . . platypus . . . prior to hitting the streets, but I really can’t interpret the events of the last couple of weeks as being anything other than a bid for FG to build a brand identity as somehow ‘different’. The umbrage taken at Cowen’s words, so disproportionate to their import in the context of a referendum Yes campaign and even for the rather dubious reason of short-term political tactics, it’s impossible to read it other than that it’s ploy. Indeed, there’s something very old style - well, FF actually, seeing as you ask - about these machinations in the face of the calls to put the ‘national’ interest first. There must have been more than me who wondered if we were seeing a belated and intriguing inverse of the old FF digging in of the heels as regards Anglo-Irish relations.

This isn’t to deny the sterling efforts by Garret FitzGerald and others on the campaign trail - indeed there is something perhaps to be said for an analysis which places the old-line ’social democratic’ wing (however weak that was in reality) on one side of the issue and the newer elements on or just tipping the other side. Granted none of this is clear cut. As noted on Cedar Lounge Revolution, Lucinda Creighton has been working on the campaign with some enthusiasm. But mixed messages are mixed messages, and, unfortunately, dependent upon their source, they can - as we all know - spread a lot further and have a greater effect than first thought. Note the hesitancy of the IFA amongst others. Nihilism, amongst those with barely a nihilistic bone in their body, appears to be all the rage, and that I suspect is the reaction to the realisation that however well FG did in May 2007, it simply wasn’t enough and that the present coalition, for all the hopes of an early rupture, is now embedded.

So, if the referendum is passed, well and good for Fine Gael. They have the advantage of fleetingly ‘understanding’ a euro-sceptic position that, to judge from the polls, works well with their constituency. If it fails? Hmmm . . . that’s a different ball game. They’ve got their counter-spin in early by blaming Cowen, but even the Irish Times was equivocal about the depth of effort on the FG (and to an extent the Labour) side over the past month. The inevitable finger pointing might well make relationships between our two ‘great’ parties even more sour than they have been already in this Dáil. And to what purpose? Fine for solidifying party support, but party unity is a different matter. There is no political percentage in Fine Gael assuming the mantle of the euro-sceptic. Indeed, such an outcome would be near unthinkable with still four years - just - to go to the next election. So perhaps cue serious angst and consideration of errors of judgement in the aftermath, at least privately.

For Fianna Fáil, the picture looks more sanguine. Cowen can argue he gave it his best shot. There might be a degree of retrospective agonising about how events might have panned out had one B. Ahern left a little earlier, but for all the fireworks Fianna Fáil aren’t going to lose too much sleep over this issue (actually, who is? It’s a question I often ask people who are partisans of both sides, will they lose sleep one way or another? Would you?). Surely, it will make for complications in the next number of years in Europe, but nothing that can’t be weathered. His authority might be very slightly diminished, but only very slightly. One of the most fascinating poll figures is the solidity of FF voters behind Lisbon. It really is highly impressive. But they’re not going to go elsewhere should it be lost.

Labour are treating this in an entertainingly presidential fashion. The posters really do say it all. Forgotten who your local councillor is? You won’t have by the end of this process (and the same is true of FG - Paschal Mooney, your hour has come, again). Nor does it end there. It’s a nice PR campaign for Eamon Gilmore, with, as has been noted elsewhere, a ‘Yes’ of such subtle and reserved proportions printed on the posters that one might not realise it was there at all. Which perhaps is the point of the exercise. Meanwhile, one has to admire the chutzpah of a certain Labour Youth member who with his customary relish for engaging with our media has started a near-one man campaign against the Treaty. On Myspace. Well, I guess it’s whatever works. But all told, no huge problems should it pass or not.

And similarly for the Progressive Democrats, whose presence has been limited. Not a bad idea to run with a poster of the new leader, but perhaps the name should have been bigger.

The Green Party perhaps had the best deal. By managing not to take a position, they can have their ministers campaigning fairly hard on it (perhaps too hard in the case of some statements) while not quite giving it the push that, should it fail, will tie them inextricably to the outcome. Now, that last sentence may seem a bit contradictory, in that most of this post suggests that the outcomes aren’t going to be too bad, but the Green Party is small, its support base is also small, and while much of the rhetorical radicalism has been sacrificed on the altar of pragmatism (not without cause in many instances, at least to my mind) still waters run deep. Best to remain somewhat semi-detached.

 

Sinn Féin. Ah, now, here’s a most interesting situation. Twenty-four months ago, they would have been first amongst equals on the No side. Bad - perhaps - for the No side, in that SF still have something ‘of the night’ about them to a significant portion of the Irish electorate. Good for SF in that it would shore up some of their political ‘unique selling points’ following the shambolic events in the run-up to the 2007 election. Granted the Socialist Party are giving chase, but without a TD (and somehow Joe Higgins face looks particularly forlorn on the current crop of posters) that’s easier said than done, and I’ve seen WSM posters, Peoples’ Movement and so on. A broad range of organisations with rather narrow bases. But SF as the largest cohesive unit in all this.

But ’twas not to be, for in the right-wing corner in steps a new contender. Small, but well funded (and am I tired of reading about them), it’s Libertas (or as Newton Emerson described them in the Irish Times in an highly entertaining phrase - ‘four blokes and a website’).

I’ve mentioned this before, about how Libertas may well be providing a certain cover to more centre-right leaning voters to exercise their inner eurosceptic in the safety and convenience of a political milieu which is softly spoken, avowedly middle class and business friendly. And it certainly seems to be doing so. Not just that, but also perhaps giving some leeway to Fine Gael to tilt very slightly in a similar direction, if not in word then in action.
And in the process somewhat marginalising SF as the leading ’serious’ voice on the No side. This is no mean achievement. Libertas is a pressure group, and there are many of those involved in the campaign, whereas SF is a political party of considerable weight. But the exotic nature of Libertas and the views it holds (in an Irish context) are such that it seems to gain considerably more airtime and print space than one might have expected.

Moreover, the nature of the Libertas argument, which has for the most part eschewed the wilder shores of the No campaign rhetoric (bar the off-message stuff about 3-year-olds), provides quite a contrast, even with an SF which on a leaflet in front of me argues that it is . . . really it is . . . pro-European.

This is not to say it is all bad news for Sinn Féin. Quite the opposite. Their campaign is well run and, like Libertas, much more softly spoken than some might have expected. They can hope to strengthen their profile. But perhaps not to quite the extent they might have hoped or expected.

As for the rest? Coir must be pleased with themselves, but their outings on interviews have been near uniformly disastrous. One hopes (or is it prays?) that they’re not contemplating reformatting themselves in some more durable political and electioneering vehicle after all this. And their poster imploring us not to be ‘bullied’ must have raised a couple of ironic smiles (or alternatively sent blood pressures sky-high) here and there.

And one last thought on the matter, none of this bodes well for left unity projects. The rhetoric around Lisbon has become extremely polarised, particularly as regards where different formations on the left stand on the issue. The near-eschatological views expressed in certain quarters don’t seem to allow for genuine and sincere differences of opinion. And in the broader scheme of things that is unhelpful, to say the least. Yet to my mind the charges are out of all proportion to the reality.

But it’s that sort of a referendum, at least for me. Nothing to get too worked up about. Not going to lose sleep either way. So sit back and watch the show.

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Image of a Lisbon Treaty poster is taken from the Lisbon Treaty Referendum Vote No Flickr Pool put together by Simon McGarr of Tuppenceworth blog. The group pool is based on photographs of the posters put up around the country to support a No vote in the Referendum. It includes images taken by EWI of the Free Stater blog.