Georgia and the Balance of Power - The New York Review of Books
Georgia and the Balance of Power - The New York Review of Books
George Friedman argues that the conflict in Georgia has been brewing for months, while Russian action can be traced back to 1992. Motivated by what it saw as the encirclement of Russia with the declared independence of Kosovo and the eastern creep of Nato Russia seized the opportunity to display a show of strength when they knew that any response for the US and the EU would be just empty words.
"The Russians knew that the United States would denounce their attack. This actually plays into Russian hands. The more vocal senior US leaders are, the greater the contrast with their inaction, and the Russians wanted to drive home the idea that American guarantees are empty talk. The Russians also know something else that is of vital importance. For the United States, the Middle East is far more important than the Caucasus, and Iran is particularly important." This is Russia returning to great power status.
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