
Pay Cuts and Deflation
In his third post on competitiveness at the progressive economy@tasc blog (previous two here and here), ICTU economists Paul Sweeney asks if a reduction in labour costs, even unit labour costs, will reduce prices for goods and services throughout the economy - the measure needed, the economists tell us, it improve Ireland’s competitiveness. Or will it instead contract the economy further, reducing domestic demand and lead to the closure of businesses, precipitating a further deterioration.
Referring to OECD data he indicates that productivity rather than unit cost price effects competitiveness more, and Ireland’s productivity has been static for the last five years.
“Yet the latest OECD data shows that the level of productivity in Ireland was third highest after the US and Norway. The Irish Central Bank publishes a table which shows relative unit labour costs, in a common currency, for Ireland in 2009 was down at 67 (from 100 in 1995). It has been around this for the last four or five years. A different Bank table, (on unit costs relative to the main trading partners), has also been stable at 99 for 5 years. With the growth in construction and in services, sectors with low productivity, during the domestic boom since 2001, productivity increases were difficult to achieve. With a deep recession, this may be even more difficult, due to labour hoarding.”
While many companies who continue to earn a sizable profit are happy to honour the terms of the national pay agreement, we are told that all wages have to come down across in every company, industry and sector. But, asks Sweeney, is not the crisis within Irish banking, which is still failing to provide credit for businesses and the lack of transparency around pricing much more of a factor affecting competitiveness?
“Or is it that Ireland would need a CAB-like Prices Commission to really police lawyers, solicitors, pharmacists, retailers, wholesalers etc. to force them to bring down prices and that this would be “state interference ” in the market? Some businesses will reduce prices because they have to, but others will not, especially when they can get away with it. A CAB-like Prices Commission is what is required in these exceptional times to ensure fairness in such a cost reduction mission. Or is it as simple as the fact the some economists would abhor state interference in the prices mechanism in these trying times, but that they have not such ideological qualms on the price of labour?”
The argument around wage cuts is often based on the untested notion that with a reduction in wages the price of exported goods will be reduced and this will boost the sale of goods on the international market. But even if wages did directly impact on the price of exported goods international trade itself is in decline. Numerous newspaper reports indicate that Germany, the greatest exporter in the world has seen a collapse in exports, with overseas orders for capital goods down a massive 48.2% in the year to January.
With the G20 meeting in London on April 2nd and the unveiling of stimulus packages designed to help rebuild failing economies will Ireland, with its international reputation in tatters, be in a position to benefit?

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