
Stimulus for Development
Over on the progressive-economy@tasc blog Sean O’Riain, Professor of Sociology in NUI, Maynooth has published perhaps one of the most significant pieces of commentary on the Irish economy in the run up to the April budget: Stimulus for Development. In it he updates the argument he put forward in his Exchequer Returns Emphasis the Need for Growth Strategy post written in early March, which argued that the gap between expenditure and tax returns cannot be closed by cuts and tax increases alone. What is needed is growth:
“We need to be crafting a stimulus plan for growth, incorporating fiscal measures and programmes that generate employment and are geared towards the medium to long term developmental needs of the economy and society (education and training, greening the infrastructure and economy, small business development, innovation, urban design, caring and other social and reproductive work, and more).”
Addressing the current debate Sean says that the emphasis has now shifted to attempts to minimize the deflationary effects of these measures, as can be seen in the recent policy documents published by Sinn Fein and Fine Gael. We also have the social partners returning to Government buildings, so the hope is that with these institutions working together on a multi-layered approach that we might have a growth strategy that would accompany fiscal measures.
“Without that growth strategy, the fiscal measures will not achieve their desired goal. We will simply end up chasing our tails, raising tax rates on a declining tax base and promoting deflation by combining tax increases, employment reductions, spending and wages cuts in a single year. Immediate measures to restore a degree of fiscal stability and reduce the budget deficit are necessary - but require a strong countervailing growth policy to restore the economy, and even to maintain those narrow fiscal goals.”
Drawing on his own research and others Sean points out that the existing industrial development structure is still very weak, having lost momentum in late 90s:
“Even with the boom of the past decade, our banking, enterprise and social investment sectors have major structural defects that will weaken the effects of any efforts to increase cost competitiveness. Any growth plan must also be a development plan - even where particularly important to competitiveness, cutting costs will be an element in a growth strategy but will not deliver the development in organizational capabilities that is required.”
Any proposed solution to the crisis however, must be rooted in three crucial features of the current situation:
- The efforts to deal with the public finances must be combined with a strategy for growth in a creative multi-year approach.
- These efforts must be located within an integrated solution, as NESC point out. This should encompass solutions to deal with the financial crisis, the fiscal crisis, the economic crisis, the social crisis and the reputational crisis. An exclusive focus on re-capitalising the banking system, cost competitiveness or public sector costs will not generate the economic or political dynamic to get us out of this mess.
- Solutions must not only be adaptive, but also developmental - this crisis has only emphasized the weaknesses of our existing systems. If we simply restore business as usual, then we go back to banks that don’t lend to productive businesses, to a weak industrial base that is stuttering towards the ‘knowledge economy’, to weak systems of social support for workers, and so on. Institutional reforms need to be developed not only for the public sector but for the banking and private sectors.
He then goes on to list the key features of any future plan. The first and most important is banking reform.
“Simply recapitalizing banks that go back to their existing business models will do little for growth - Patrick Honohan has shown that banks contributed little to the Celtic Tiger boom of the 1990s and it is clear that their lending since the late 1990s has been speculative rather than promoting development.”
You can read the whole article on progressive-economy@tasc.

We welcome and encourage lively discussion from the public about articles on Irish Left Review. You can leave a comment using the form at the bottom of the page. Please read through the existing comments before posting your own.