
NAMA or Nationalisation Will Not Get Banks Lending Again
So what is the purpose of NAMA, or indeed the other idea for resolving the current banking crisis, the temporary nationalisation of Irish banks? With all the debate about the details of NAMA, whether it leads to the tax payer or the shareholder getting burned, what value will be set for the assets used as collateral in bad loans etc, its easy to forget what the main objective of the whole exercise is. According to the April budget statement and numerous comments from Brian Lenihan it is to stabilise the banking sector so that it can once again start to provide credit for the real economy, that is households and small and medium-sized businesses.
In a very clear sighted post on progressive-economy.ie Jim Stewart points out that none of the proposed mechanisms, NAMA or nationalisation, will bring this about. The reason is simple: the conditions to lend for a bank that is geared for making profit are not there.
“The reason the stated aim [of NAMA to provide stability for the banking sector and get them lending again] will be unsuccessful is that it is irrational to expect banks to provide funds to firms or individuals in the context of falling personal incomes, rising unemployment and a rising level of insolvencies in the corporate sector. This is a feature not just of the Irish economy but of all the Eurozone economies.”
What is needed instead is a dedicated bank that will guarantee to extend credit to small and medium sized businesses and to work on the presumption that it will lose money in doing so. The aim should be to keep business going in the short term, to maintain employment and to provide some equilibrium for the economy until it starts to recover.
Citing the merger idea, proposed in an earlier stage of the crisis, Jim argues that caution should be used when trying to provide solutions (any merger with Anglo Irish Bank for example would have lead to the new entity collapsing), but stresses that in the area of lending to households and small and medium sized businesses there is no time to wait.
“What is needed is a new entity designed to lend funds to the SME sector. Such an entity cannot be “for profit”. It cannot be run on strictly commercial lines, because in the current crisis lending to SMEs is certain to result in losses. This new entity could be funded on the basis that 20% of loans would fail. Lending is thus made with the knowledge that there is an explicit subsidy. The return to the State (and the economy) is indirect in terms of job preservation, so that when the economy recovers there is an existing base which is a potential source of growth and job creation. Such a policy could also act as a certification device to other banks. It would reduce risk to other banks provided claims on collateral were ranked below that of additional funding from other banks.”
Read the full post here.
The progressive economy blog had a number of great posts on the financial crisis. Peadar Kirby came back from a conference in Iceland to suggest that the level of civic discontent that finally removed the previously permanently resident centre right party from government in Iceland could be mobilized here to the same effect.
Slí Eile, provides an excellent review of the recent Dublin Economic Workshop conference in TCD, boiling down the arguments made by the swaying chorus of orthodox economists to:
- we got to price ourselves back into world markets
- nominal wages must be cut - especially those of the public sector
- fiscal balance must be restored quickly - primarily through continuing expenditure cuts and targetted tax hikes
- everything else must be driven by the above or wait on the above.
And concludes:
“All in all it was not an encouraging event - more cuts, no end in sight and a very cold and calculating ‘markets must clear’ as we hope for an international recovery - eventually.
Nobody was asking the question - by how much does unemployment need to increase and how much do wages need to fall to price us back into international markets?”
Full post here.

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