2.5 More Years…2.5 More Years
It’s not up there with “5 more years”, battle cry of both Republicans and Democrats in the not too distant past, now is it? But that’s the reality we’re now facing in the wake of the vote at the Green Party Convention this weekend. 31 months to be precise, leaving out this one, that is if the election is called for May 2012. That’s a fantastic, in one sense of the word, stretch of time, slightly further away than May 2007 is from us now. And think what has happened in the intervening time. Those blissful days when John and Bertie first met and broke bread seem a lifetime ago. So much unpleasantness, although in truth little of it between them, since. A near-collapse of capitalist institutions, a change in FF leadership, not one but two Lisbon referendums, count ‘em… NAMA, the fracturing of the FF vote and the rise and rise of Labour. And there’s more…
Already the bill of fare for the deal is being called in by Fianna Fáil, and who could blame them?
Fianna Fáil Ministers expect the Greens to support the forthcoming budget and remain as stable partners in Government until the end of its term in 2012, in return for the deal the smaller party obtained in the negotiations for the renewed Programme for Government.
The Programme for Government is a promise that they can retain power for as long as their back benchers will permit them. That may not be quite as long as 2.5 years, there’s still the small matter of the Budget. But the Green Party will hope that the concentration on the education sector and some tinkering around the edges with health, will see them safely to harbour in December, whatever the impacts on the public sector (and by the way, while my eye has been off that ball this last week, Michael Taft has some thought provoking pieces here and here on precisely those matters).
A senior Fianna Fáil source told The Irish Times last night: “I hope they realise they are in for the 2½ years; you’re in and you stay in.”
Which would sound perhaps a trifle more intimidating coming from a party that has spent the last year becalmed in polls both opinion and actual.
But, in truth said source is absolutely correct. Yet this is hardly news to the Green Party. In fact it’s not news at all. Everything we’ve seen recently has been fashioned with the grim political reality of their probable political demise should they have to face the country any time soon. Most commentators seem to believe they’d be wiped out, I’d hesitantly suggest Sargent might make it but beyond that there would be tears. And if I and you think that way that from the outside then you can imagine the anxiety within the organisation.
The carefully crafted, albeit unpredictable, events of the weekend were predicated on precisely this outcome, sufficient time for them to continue with their programme and remain in government. Because the recognition that this is it, their one last shot at remaining a significant electoral force for this generation has certainly not escaped them.
The calculation is that two and a half years, just about, from here to May 2012, will be sufficient for a grateful public to see that, yes, they did the right thing, tough and all as it was, that when they had little influence they concentrated on their specific areas of ministerial responsibility and when they had more influence they leveraged it into the renewed Programme for Government. Which is certainly a theory.
It could still founder. Those FF back benches could find the Budget too much to countenance… and I think there’s real concern in the GP about the response of the unions, and more importantly the response of the electorate to the unions. But, I think it’s telling that only Joe Behan of all the FF TDs and Senators actually made the leap away, and that at a remarkably early point in the process (indeed one wonders is there any chance he might now be enticed back by the markedly education friendly nature of the PfG).
And in fairness, this is now an FF/GP coalition government, with the support of one or two out-riders (by the way, speaking of former out-riders, isn’t Finian McGrath truly one of the most remarkable politicians for catching the zeitgeist. Voting No to Lisbon last year and Yes this year. Quite a skill he has there for seizing the moment. And remember, as part of his deal with FF he negotiated his semi-detached position on Lisbon first time around. There’s many as dismiss him, but I’d not be too quick to do so).
But there’s the rub. As the situation worsened the GP Ministers were forced time and again to look up from those areas of ministerial responsibility and account for actions (which again in fairness) were not unequivocally their responsibility, or at least not always. And it’s that identification with the broader sweep of FF policy which has been their undoing. One can concentrate on Energy or Local Government, but one sits at a cabinet table and collective cabinet responsibility kicks in sooner or later.
Now, though, they’ve stepped blinking into the sunlight of full responsibility. From here on out they’re joined at the hip with Fianna Fáil in a way that even four days ago they weren’t.
No wonder the unnamed FF source was so cock-of-the-hoop. A responsibility shared, while not precisely halved, is a damn sight easier than one shouldered entirely by one person.
And looking at the poll numbers, and I have little doubt that we’ll see, in the wake of Lisbon and the renegotiated PfG a spike upwards in both FF and GP numbers as errant support comes home – most likely in greater numbers to the former, the current dynamics may change. Not entirely, and not hugely, but sufficiently so to give heart, at least until the Budget – for who knows what the outcome of that will be (although the odd variability in the noises emanating from FF on that score perhaps indicate something).
But there too is another rub. We simply do not know, and won’t for some time, whether the events of the past year have inflicted sufficient damage on FF to hobble them for the remainder of this Dáil. Nor, and this is a most interesting question in itself, do we know what the outcome of all this will be for the Green Party. It seems fantastical, to use that word again, that they can return to that happy transfer friendly position they had in 2002 and 2007. So, do they eke out the remainder of their time in government, effectively diminished to the point where there is no hope of electoral salvation in 2012? Or do we see a marked rebound where they strengthen in the wake of what have most certainly been two good weeks?
[Mind you, what about this particular plan for maintaining a presence for the GP in the Oireachtas, whatever the outcome of the next election? Somebody has been thinking well ahead.]
Either way they’re dug in. There’s no percentage in them cutting and running now, and suddenly all the hand waving before during and after the Summer by sections of the opposition appears just a little bit more like wishful thinking.
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