Rss Feed Tweeter button Facebook button Linkedin button

Skip to content

Friday, Feb 3rd 2012


Job Crisis Within a Job Crisis? The Recession Diaries - February 10th

175 Boston Scientific jobs to go in Galway, the loss of 200 Bitech Engineering jobs in Louth,a seismic 750 job lost at Halifax, those depressing numbers that Ronan Lyons has pulled up - what are we to make of the state of the labour market only a few weeks into the new year?

Hard to get a full sense from the Live Register as it doesn’t tell us how many new people are signing-on each month.  For instance, 100,000 new people may sign on in February and 50,000 may sign off - which means the Register increases by 50,000 people.  However, if the number of people signing off is 150,000, the Register decreases by 50,000.  No difference in the number of new people signing on, though; job losses are just as high.

People sign off for a variety of reasons: (a) they get a job (and there are still vacancies to fill and new jobs being created, even in a recession); (b) people going back to education or entering a training scheme; (c) going on to other social welfare scheme such as Lone Parents; (d) ‘administrative reasons’ which is code for running out your benefit but failing the means-test for assistance (this happens in two-job households where one partner becomes unemployed) (f) just give up looking for a job; and, of course, the big (f) emigration.

The CSO stopped publishing the inflows and outflows into the Live Register some years ago.  The latest  data we have is for September of last year from the the FAS Quarterly Labour Market Commentary.  In that month, the number of new entrants increased by less than 10,000.  But the outflow exceeded 25,000.  So did unemployment increase?  Yes,  Did the Live Register, therefore, increase?  No.  It fell by 17,000 (unadjusted). On such basis do some commentators talk about ‘unemployment stabilising’.  Unemployment is not stabilising - its still rising.  It’s just that emigration and other facts are rising even faster.

There is another measurement that can tell us the level of job loss.  The Department of Enterprise compiles the number of redundancy notices each month.  To qualify for redundancy, an employee must have been fully insured and working with the employer for at least two years. So this doesn’t capture all job losses in a month.  But what does it tell us?

Redundancy

Redundancies increased substantially in January 2010.  It was the highest since June 2009 and even higher than the previous January which saw the biggest rise in unemployment in over 20 years.  Indeed, the January 2010 figure was higher than the monthly average for the entire last year - over 4 percent higher.

Of course, this is just one month.  I doubt this level of redundancies and job losses will be sustained but I say this more out of hope than any prescience. But it could signal another long year where, as the IMF puts it, we have a statistical recovery but a human recession.

So, when I hear commentators saying we have ‘turned the corner‘ I wonder if they’re walking the same street as the rest of us.

************

Update: 10th of February

A quick follow-up to the post earlier today on the jobs crisis. In it I referred to one of the reasons why people ’sign-off” the Live Register - administrative reasons. Some of this is down to people exhausting their Jobseekers’ Benefit but unable to comply with the means-test for Jobseekers’ Allowance (e.g. a working spouse, a private pension, etc.).

On foot of this post, Deputy Leo Varadkar’s office forwarded me some numbers on this issue they received via a Parliamentary Question. The following is the number in 2009 who failed the means-test:

  • April: 1,964
  • May: 2,191
  • June: 2,036
  • July: 2,499
  • August: 2,317
  • September: 2,859

‘These numbers don’ t necessarily refer to the particular situation of people coming off of Benefit, but includes all categories of applicants.

What’s interesting, apart from the fact that the number of rejections increased by over 45 percent in the period between April and September, is that of the increase in Jobseekers’ Allowance, nearly 25 percent were rejected. In September, the number of those on Allowance actually declined while rejections soared to nearly 2,900.

We shouldn’t be surprised if these numbers increase - and these don’t count those who don’t even apply for Assistance under the belief (mistakenly or not) that they wouldn’t pass the means test. It’s one way to ’stabilise unemployment’.

Thanks to Deputy Varadkar’s office for this helpful information.

Discussion

We welcome and encourage lively discussion from the public about articles on Irish Left Review. You can leave a comment using the form at the bottom of the page. Please read through the existing comments before posting your own.

  1. Comment by: Pope Epopt

    Feb 11th 2010 at 11:02

    This confirms my suspicions about the pressure to massage unemployment figures.

    Are there any whistle-blowers out there who would like to tell us about incentives or instructions to refuse benefit seekers?

    (Use TOR - the Onion Router and set up an anonymous email over HTTPS (Gmail is HTTPS by default) through it and always use TOR for that email if you wish to protect yourselves fully).

  2. Comment by: Pope Epopt

    Feb 11th 2010 at 11:02

    I should have said pseudonymous email.

  3. Comment by: Pope Epopt

    Feb 11th 2010 at 11:02

    They do things differently elsewhere in the EU.

    In Germany the Supreme Court has ruled in the Hartz IV verdict that citizens have a right sufficient welfare to maintain a dignified life.

    The Germans have a constitutional right to human dignity..

    See below from the Basic Law of the Federal Republic:

    I. Basic Rights Article 1 [Human dignity]

    (1) Human dignity shall be inviolable. To respect and protect it shall be the duty of all state authority.

    (2) The German people therefore acknowledge inviolable and inalienable human rights as the basis of every community, of peace and of justice in the world.

    (3) The following basic rights shall bind the legislature, the executive, and the judiciary as directly applicable law.”

    The Hartz-IV judgement has applied this to social welfare.

    “It extends to each individual in need of assistance the material prerequisites essential for physical existence and a minimum level of participation in social, cultural and political life.”

    Contrast that with the rights in our own constitution and case law which are mainly about property and religious rights.

    Time for a second republic and an improved constitution.

  4. Comment by: Pope Epopt

    Feb 11th 2010 at 11:02

    I seem to have nested my block quotes. Sorry - I’m sure you’re all bright enough to work it out.

Leave a Comment

(required)

(required, will not be published)

Sins of the Father

Sins of the Father:

Tracing the Decisions

That Shaped the Irish Economy,

by Conor McCabe

from The History Press

Now Available as an e-Book.

Subscribe by Email

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner



Irish Left Review on Facebook

Best of the Web

  • Ireland has one of the most attractive tax rates for fracking companies in the world

    Very important point made by Natural Gas Europe here (posted on Shell to Sea) about the licencing agreement around Shale Gas (Fracking) and needs to be understood in the context of the news today that Tamboran Resources initial exploration in  north Leitrim has found that they could ultimately reach 2.2 trillion cubic feet of gas, worth $55 billion at today’s prices. Meanwhile Pat Rabbitte has asked the EPA do an environmental study, but this is very, very unlikely to veer from the assessment of the European Commission consultancy study on licensing hydraulic fracturing which found that there is no need for specific new legislation governing the mining activity.

    Besides the environmental impact, the financial cost of both that gas line and the potential shale gas excavation has caused consternation. Currently, Ireland has one of the most attractive tax rates for companies in the world. Companies in Ireland are, in most cases, required to pay only 25 per cent corporation tax, a much lower rate than most other countries with possible shale gas reserves; Ireland also does not require companies to pay any royalties to the government on saleable gas. Tamboran, Lough Allen Natural Gas and Enegi may be required to pay between five and fifteen per cent over this rate, but, even at a higher rate, the gain for the government will be lower than for most other countries in comparable situations. Pundits and protestors alike say that the government is effectively giving away a valuable resource, owned by the Irish people, to outside companies, for very little in return.

    2 comments »
  • Conflict of interest is so deeply embedded in Ireland, no one seems to notice

    The cops were very swift to close down the demonstration in the NAMA building that  Unlock NAMA occupied on Saturday the 28th. They haven’t been as swift though to investigate Anglo Irish Bank. A big blow to that investigation is due, apparently, to the fact that the cop leading it went to work for Bank of Ireland. It is not unusual for people from the fraud squad to move into the private banking sector, we are told, just as we were told that it isn’t unusual for people to move from the regulators office or the Central Bank (when they were separate bodies) to the boards of private banks. Unlock NAMA revealed that the building they occupied was in a very bad state of repair. Add to that the difficulty in establishing that it was a NAMA building at all, considering that it was added to the foreclosure list incorrectly. This should open up discussion on what is happening to all the other NAMA buildings, at the very least. At the most there should be uproar about the massive stock of properties that NAMA controls the loans of which is being allowed to rot and devalue. These properties are being held on to simply to try and artificially hold the price on property and provide the means for future speculation.

    Senior garda fraud specialist retires to work for Bank of Ireland

    The senior garda detective who was in charge of the Anglo-Irish investigation for 18 months took early retirement at the end of last year and is now working with Bank of Ireland, it has emerged.

    Former detective superintendent Pat Collins, 52, was regarded as the Garda’s top expert in corporate fraud investigation. He spent much of his career in the Fraud Squad and before taking charge of the Anglo investigation he spent time on secondment with the Office of the Director of Corporate Enforcement working with its director, Paul Appleby.

    Former colleagues say his departure — on full pension after having served 30 years in the force — will be a major blow to the investigation.

    Coveney adviser’s patriotism stressed to secure special pay

    Elsewhere, Minister for Agriculture Simon Coveney is in the news for asking for a €130,000 salary for his special advisor Fergal Leamy, a former chief executive of Greencore USA. The cap as we are well aware after all the breeches of it is €92,672. Leamy didn’t last long, despite Coveney pleading that he was desperate to do the state some service he left after four months. He got an offer from an equity firm in the London that he couldn’t refuse. However, the story also reveals that Simon  Coveney’s brother, Patrick Coveney is chief executive of Greencore. Of course Greencore has a long and controversial history, which Shane Ross referred to as a template for the worst excesses of corporate Ireland, a close rival to DCC.

    No comments »
  • Can We Still Write Big Question Sorts of Books? | David Graeber

    David Graeber and the model of his ‘popular’ yet scholarly book Debt: The First 5000 Years

    So: what was to be the model for a big questions sort of book, and how to write a book that would still be scholarly, but not academic?

    This is what I came up with:

    Of all the models I considered, the most amenable turned out to be the approach adopted by Marcel Mauss. This might seem odd. especially because Mauss never actually wrote a book; he’s mainly famous for a series of essays. Yet many of these essays-not just the Gift, but his essay on the person, techniques of the body (where he coins the term “habitus”), sacrifice and magic-really have had a profound effect both on all subsequent scholarship, and, to differing degrees, political and social debates ever since. Mauss had an uncanny ability to ask the right questions-often, questions he was the first to pose, and which have become mainstays of theoretical debate ever since. His was also an appealing model because Mauss was both a serious, committed activist (he was especially active in the French cooperative movement), and a scholar of remarkable erudition. His problem-and this, I suspect, is why he never did write a proper book, despite numerous attempts-was that he was also almost unimaginably disorganized, and therefore, terrible at exposition. I suspect if alive today he would have been quickly diagnosed with severe ADD.

    1 comment »
  • Irish ‘SOPA law’ another under the radar attack on digital rights by a craven government pandering far too easily to corporate interests

    Very strong and accurate piece from Karlin Lillington in the Irish Times today, making no bones about the motivations behind the changes in copyright law that Sean Sherlock and the Irish government are trying to sneak in. It’s odd at a time when the SOPA law in the US, which is similarly motivated to the Irish law, has just been dropped.

    FOR THREE governments in a row, “short-sighted” and “sneaky” seem to have become the relevant terms in operation when bringing in controversial, high-impact legislation on digital issues.

    In the past, from the government’s perspective, this approach has worked well in shoving in poorly drafted, unscrutinised law on the controversial area of data retention, giving the Republic one of the most severe, internationally criticised, anti-business retention regimes in the world.

    This time around, the Government is trying again to use secondary legislation - a statutory instrument requiring no discussion and no debate in the Oireachtas - to (supposedly) protect intellectual property for a narrow band of hard-lobbying entertainment industries.

    For despite what the ‘hard-lobbying entertainment industries’ might say internet piracy is not killing off its profits. That assumes for a start that the amount produced is static, which given the amount of ‘content’ flooding towards us each day is absurd.

    But more importantly, there is evidence (from numerous mainstream studies and reports) that industry claims about piracy decimating revenue, jobs and creativity are vastly overstated. A careful analysis of such claims by Julian Sanchez on Ars Technica ( iti.ms/wT8l02), picked up and further discussed by Forbesiti.ms/xQJXhg), indicates piracy has actually had only a minor impact on these industries.

    The record industry in the US, for example, has about double the new releases it had a decade ago, when piracy was barely on its radar. The film industry also has more releases now than in pre-piracy days and its most pirated movies are also those that made staggering box office profits. Sanchez cites evidence that the music industry is making back profits lost to piracy through “complementary purchases” such as concert tickets. And a recent report issued by a US anti-piracy lobby group rather farcically indicates its clients are doing quite well, thank you.

    3 comments »
  • Davos dilemma | Michael Roberts

    The majority of those at Davos think that Capitalism isn’t working, but don’t feel there is a need to change anything because its working rather well for them. It’s up to those not in the 1% then to change it.

    The strategists of capital are attending their annual jamboree in the snow playground of the super-rich in Davos, Switzerland for the World Economic Forum. Many of the top 0.1% of income earners are there. And this year the main theme is whether capitalism works and is fair.

    Capitalism is in crisis - and this time the word ‘crisis’ is not hyperbole. Even the 2600 attendees at Davos recognise that. According to a survey by the financial broadcaster, Bloomberg, almost 70% of those asked believed that the capitalist system is in trouble, with 32% saying it needs “radical reworking”. Less than 20% reckoned ‘free enterprise’ is working. Most Davos 0.1 percenters are really worried that this failure of capitalism to work could lead to ’social instability’ in one form or another.

    And more than half who were asked at Davos thought that inequality of income and wealth under capitalism was damaging economic growth. But only one in five wanted any urgent action on the issue! It seems that greed triumphs over economic logic - or should we say, class interest rules

    No comments »
  • The Promissory Notes | Tom McDonnell

    Economist Tom McDonnell of TASC provides a brief primer on IBRC promissory notes, which is available on Slideshare. Click here to view it in it’s own web page.

    No comments »
  • Michael Taft talks to Doug Henwood of Left Business Observer about the Irish Economy| 7th of January

    Michael Taft talks to Doug Henwood of Behind the News in a detailed 30 minute discussion about the Irish economy which was posted on the 7th of Jan. The second half of the show is given over to a discussion with Jodi Dean about Occupy Wall Street and ‘demands’. It’s also worth reading Jodi Dean’s article on Occupy Wall Street and the Left which was published today on Critical Legal Thinking.

    MP3 Link.

    [display_podcast]

    No comments »
  • What are bankers doing inside EU summits? | Corporate Europe Observatory

    Important information here on the extent of bank lobbies influence in the resolution of the Greek debt crisis, particularly when it comes to plans which require ‘private sector involvement’.

    At the Euro Summits in July and October 20111, crucial decisions “to save the Euro” and “to save Greece” were made. It was agreed to restructure Greek debts and banks were asked to accept a ‘haircut’ to their profits to avoid a Greek default and the risk that some banks might default as a result. In Summer 2011, the press was full of stories about the informal negotiations between EU leaders and the banks about the level of private sector involvement in restructuring Greece’s debts.

    The Institute of International Finance (IIF), a lobby group established in 1983 by the biggest banks and financial institutions in the world to deal with the question of sovereign debt2, became the EU’s interlocutor on the Greek debt issue. Its proposals -described as ”offers”- received red carpet treatment.

    No comments »
  • Is Ireland really the role model for austerity? | Stephen Kinsella | Cambridge Journal of Economics

    Abstract
    This paper describes the causes and consequences of Ireland’s economic crisis in the context of the policy solution implemented to contain that crisis: protracted fiscal austerity. I describe the causes of the recent crisis in Ireland and look at the logic of austerity with a simple model. I compare the current crisis to the crisis of the 1980s, when fiscal austerity was touted as the trigger for the Celtic Tiger. I discuss the measures implemented to date in the current crisis, tracing their effects on sectors of Ireland’s macroeconomy. I show that Ireland is not the role model for austerity policies.

    =======
    The full content of the January 2012 issue of the Cambridge Journal of Economics is available free online here. It is a special issue on the theme “Austerity: Making the same mistakes again - Or is this time different?”

    Contents
    Making the same mistakes again - Or is this time different?
    Lawrence King, Michael Kitson, Sue Konzelmann, and Frank Wilkinson

    Financial crisis and global imbalances: its labour market origins and the aftermath
    Pasquale Tridico

    Dangerous interconnectedness: economists’ conflicts of interest, ideology and financial crisis
    Jessica Carrick-Hagenbarth and Gerald A. Epstein

    Commentary: Contradictions of austerity
    Alex Callinicos

    The great austerity war: what caused the US deficit crisis and who should pay to fix it?
    James Crotty

    The end of the UK’s liberal collectivist social model? The implications of the coalition government’s policy during the austerity crisis
    Damian Grimshaw and Jill Rubery

    Iceland’s rise, fall, stabilisation and beyond
    Robert H. Wade and Silla Sigurgeirsdottir

    Commentary: Dire consequences: the conservative recapture of America’s political narrative?
    David Coates

    A note on America’s 1920–21 depression as an argument for austerity
    Daniel Kuehn

    US government deficits and debt amid the great recession: what the evidence shows
    Robert Pollin

    Fiscal deficits, economic growth and government debt in the USA
    Lance Taylor, Christian R. Proaño, Laura de Carvalho, and Nelson Barbosa

    The tragedy of UK fiscal policy in the aftermath of the financial crisis
    Malcolm Sawyer

    Is Ireland really the role model for austerity?
    Stephen Kinsella

    The macroeconomic stabilisation effects of Social Security and 401(k) plans
    Teresa Ghilarducci, Joelle Saad-Lessler, and Eloy Fisher

    The basic paradigms of EU economic policy-making need to be changed
    Kazimierz Laski and Leon Podkaminer

    Building faith in a common currency: can the eurozone get beyond the Common Market logic?
    Pascal Petit

    The four fallacies of contemporary austerity policies: the lost Keynesian legacy
    Robert Boyer

    Russia: austerity and deficit reduction in historical and comparative perspective
    Vladimir Popov

    Commentary: Austerity and fraud under different structures of technology and resource abundance
    Jing Chen and James Galbraith

    No comments »
  • The Newsfakers | Patrick Cockburn

    I enjoyed this nuanced article by Patrick Cockburn about journalism, accuracy, modern media, blogging, black propaganda and the use of social media by authoritarian regimes and advanced capitalist ‘democratic’ ones too. It also reminded me of this excellent review of Net Delusion by Oliver Farry that we published a while back.

    “So technical advances have made it more difficult for governments to hide repression. But these developments have also made the work of the propagandist easier. Of course, people who run newspapers and radio and television stations are not fools. They know the dubious nature of much of the information they are conveying. The political elite in Washington and Europe was divided for and against the US invasion of Iraq, making it easier for individual journalists to dissent. But today there is an overwhelming consensus in the foreign media that the rebels are right and existing governments wrong. For institutions such as the BBC, highly unbalanced coverage becomes acceptable.

    Sadly, al-Jazeera, which has done so much to shatter state control of information in the Middle East since it was set up in 1996, has become the uncritical propaganda arm of the Libyan and Syrian rebels.”

    No comments »

Link Archives »

Authors