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Thursday, Feb 9th 2012


Shhh. Rewrite at Work. The Recession Diaries - April 12th

The Government insisted on inserting the following phrase into the proposed public sector pay deal:

‘The implementation of this Agreement is subject to no currently unforeseen budgetary deterioration.’

Now the Government is busily rewriting this. Apparently, the agreement is no longer subject to currently unforeseen budgetary deterioration. Indeed, to even refer to the Government’s clause is now considered to be irresponsible.

‘The department also described as “a red herring” criticisms which have been raised about the so-called “get-out-of-jail” card in the agreement. This states that the implementation of the measures set out in the deal is subject to there being no unforeseen deterioration in the Government’s finances. The Government would follow through on all the commitments in the deal except in very exceptional circumstances such as another major financial crisis, said the department yesterday.’

There is a good reason why the Government is busily rewriting the agreement.

For whatever about the ‘unforeseen’ part, there is little doubt that the budgetary situation is deteriorating. And Ministers are getting a bit touchy about this.

The Government is projecting the deficit this year to come in at -11.6 percent - only fractionally lower than last year. Maintaining this level is crucial both economically and politically; slippage would call into question the very premise of Government strategy. .

Slippage 1: In the last few weeks the CSO recorded GDP levels more than €1 billion below the Government’s projections published in December. In addition, on foot of the recent Quarterly Household Report, unemployment figures were revised upwards from - 12.6 percent to 13.4 percent. Out of all this, last year’s deficit has to be revised downwards again -from -11.7 to -11.8 percent; admittedly marginal, but downwards nonetheless.

Slippage 2: After the first three months of this year, the Government is already off-target. By March, tax revenue was -3.6 percent below target, down from February’s undershoot of -1.3 percent. The Government expected tax receipts this year to be €2 billion below last year’s level. In the first quarter alone, tax receipts are already €1.2 billion under target. The slippage is getting slippier.

It’s not just that the Government’s strategy is coming under internal pressure, it’s also getting a wallop of external pressure.

The EU Commission in its most recent statement on Irish public finances has warned the Government that (a) its growth projections are too optimistic, (b) expenditure will over-run, and (c) it will have to engage in ‘additional’ consolidation measures (more spending cuts/tax increases beyond what the Government has already projected). Even if the Government comes in on target, the EU Commission wants Ireland to ‘consolidate’ further to bring down overall debt levels.

The IMF also gives the Government similar warnings and argues that the Government must cut spending even further if it is to bring the deficit below -3% by 2014 (the Maastricht guideline).

The final straw on this deteriorating camel comes from the Central Bank. While much attention was paid to their projection that the economy will return to growth by the second half of the year, some of the fine print was glossed over. Namely, that GDP will be well below the Government’s projections - by nearly 3 percent by 2011 in nominal terms. This will put even more pressure on the deficit.

All this will lead to ‘budgetary deterioration’. How much is hard to say but there are certain symbolic targets. For instance, the Government is projecting a small decline in the deficit this year. If it actually worsens - no matter how much - the optics will be bad. If it goes beyond -12 percent, it will look particularly bad. That this is certainly possible can be seen from the Bank for International Settlement’s projection of a deficit of -12.2 percent for this year.

It is doubtful that such a slide would result in the Government tearing up the agreement if it is accepted (though this cannot be ruled out). But what it would certainly mean is that there would be little chance of reversing any pay cuts in 2011.

No wonder that the Government wants to shift the goalposts of the agreement by redefining ‘deterioration’ as ‘another financial crisis’ (does Quinn count as such a crisis?). They hope that it will take everyone’s mind off the actually existing deterioration and the thin to non-existent chance of any pay claw-back.

It is the ultimate in ostrich-like indifference to the reality around us. The Government may want to find a soft bed of sand to stick its head in - that doesn’t mean we have to.

Discussion

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  1. Comment by: Philip Pilkington

    Apr 13th 2010 at 17:04

    And then today the ERSI claim that everything will be okay in a year or so… Yeah right!

    What’s the deal with the growth in international demand that’s fuelling the growth in Irish exports anyway? I mean how can demand be growing with the average US consumer having no money to spend?

    My initial guess was that this growth is the result of the stimpaks - especially in the US and China. But if there’s no consumer demand in the last instance won’t this just be more pointless capacity floating around?

    Any thoughts, criticisms, insults?

  2. Comment by: Pope Epopt

    Apr 15th 2010 at 10:04

    @Philip Pilkington

    The ESRI did a mighty job of spin, although buried inside the report was plenty of caveats about ‘assuming no further shocks to the system etc. etc.’.

    Don’t forget Irish exports are largely the result of a corporation tax avoidance scheme. Ireland is still a good place not to pay tax within the EU and the pharmaceutical sector still operates a pretty good price cartel / IPR management regime. Transnationals employ about 100k people here - exports could continue to increase while unemployment shoots up.

    I can’t see any of it lasting however. As you say the stimpaks are still working through, but they won’t go on for ever. The lunatics are still in charge of economic policy and regulation in the US and Europe. ‘Jobless growth’ is a contradiction.

    So roll on phase II of this crisis.

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