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Wednesday, Feb 8th 2012


Greece is in Trouble

Greece is in trouble. On May 19 the government has to pay an €8.5 billion bill for money borrowed on the private markets 10 years ago.

But the Greek government is broke and can’t borrow any more from the private sector to pay its debts. It runs the risk of being the first developed capitalist economy to default on its debts in the current crisis. As a member of the Eurozone, what happens in Greece will affect all member states in the Euro.

A Greek debt default will damage the Eurozone in general. But it will have a particular impact on economies, such as Ireland, with higher levels of debt and weaker signs of recovery.

If Greece defaults it could create a chain reaction as market confidence in Ireland, Spain and Portugal collapses. This would increase the cost of our government’s debt, making it more difficult for us to pay our bills on time and increasing the likelihood of us defaulting too.

So what has the EU decided to do?

In conjunction with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) the EU will lend Greece €110billion over 3 years. In return the Greek government will make significant changes on taxation, public spending and public sector employment.

The EU/IMF wants the Greek government to reduce its spending by 6.5% a year until 2014. With GDP currently at -2.5% and no sign of recovery, this means a probable 9% contraction in the Greek economy for the next three years.

The EU/IMF also wants the government to reduce the size of the public sector by replacing only 1 out of every 5 jobs vacated by retirees.

The EU/IMF is also insisting on across the board tax increases as Greece has a very low tax take as a percentage of GDP.

Many commentators are blaming widespread tax evasion and reckless government spending for the Greek debt crisis. The only solution they argue is to raise taxes and cut spending. The EU/IMF agrees.

Another view is that government spending was not the cause of the budget deficit but rather tax avoidance among Greek businesses and the rich.

Cutting public spending, reducing the public sector workforce and increasing the tax burden on ordinary workers will deepen the recession.

It will also punish low and middle income earners for the actions of political, banking and business elites.

While the Greek tax take needs to be increased, like the southern Irish economy, it should be done by ending avoidance and making the wealthy and business pay their fair share.

Long term recovery, in Greece as in Ireland, can only come through government investment in job creation and retraining the workforce.

This is what all the major European economies are currently doing, with stimulus packages being implemented by Governments in Britain, France and Germany.

Of course the EU/IMF package for Greece is not about tackling the structural problems of the Greek economy. Rather the Greeks are being sacrificed in an attempt to prevent contagion to the rest of the Eurozone.

Images of members of the Greek Communist Party protesting at the Acropolis appeared originally on Greece’s Indymedia site.

Discussion

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  1. Comment by: Michael Youlton

    May 4th 2010 at 14:05

    Thanks to Eoin for the article above.

    Following the huge pressure exercised on the Greek social-democratic government, by the EU, the Commission and the IMF on the one hand and the popular opposition on the other, I thought it would be useful to listen from the horse’s mouth what they have decided to implement. No further comments necessary methinks. MY

    MINISTRY OF FINANCE
    5-7 NIKIS STR
    10180 ATHENS
    PRESS OFFICE

    PHONE: 210-3332551/2

    FAX: 210-3332559

    e-mail : press@mnec.gr

    Athens, 4th May 2010

    Press release on the draft legislation on the policy measures relating to the activation of the support mechanism for the Greek economy by the euro area member states and the International Monetary Fund:

    The Ministry of Finance presented today to Parliament draft legislation on the policy measures relating to the activation of the support mechanism for the Greek economy by the euro area member states and the International Monetary Fund. The draft legislation which is expected to be voted by Thursday in a “fast track process” adopts the three-year economic and financial programme developed by the Greek government together with the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the IMF, as well as measures taking immediate effect.

    Among the measures with immediate effect are an increase in VAT by 2 percentage points, increases in excise taxes on petrol, tobacco and alcohol, as well as further reductions in public sector wages, and reductions in pensions in the public and private sectors. These reductions have been designed so as to protect the low paid and those on low pensions.

    The three-year programme represents the conditionality for the agreement by the EU and the IMF for the financing package totaling 110 billion euros over three years, of which 80 billion in bilateral loans from Eurozone countries and 30 billion from the IMF. Of the total amount, 30 billion euros will be released in 2010.

    The programme foresees a fiscal effort of the order of 11 GDP points or approx. 30 billion from now until the end of 2013.

    Starting with a 2009 deficit of 13.6% the 2010 overall fiscal effort will cut the deficit by more than 5 percentage points. Measures corresponding to 2.5% of GDP, i.e., close to 6 billion will be added to the current effort, which includes measures exceeding 6 percentage points of GDP.

    In 2011, the overall fiscal effort will exceed 4% of GDP, i.e., approx. 10 billion, and in 2012 and 2013 the fiscal effort will be of an order of 2% of GDP, i.e., approx. 5 billion. The deficit is expected to fall under the 3% threshold in 2014. The debt to GDP ratio which currently stands at 115% of GDP will start declining after 2013.

    The programme also includes specific milestones for the implementation of structural measures relating to the tax system, the budget process, tax reform, labour market reform, opening up of product markets and closed professions, and reforms in the public administration.

    It also includes measures to preserve the soundness of the Greek financial sector and thus its capacity to support the Greek economy, through the creation of a Financial Stability Fund, and intensified banking supervision.

    The Greek Government remains firmly committed to implement all necessary measures to ensure rapid fiscal consolidation and structural reforms for the benefit of the economy and of Greek citizens.

  2. Comment by: Michael Youlton

    May 5th 2010 at 11:05

    The Greek social-democratic government of PASOK is facing a massive general strike today and a crucial Parliamentary vote tomorrow Thursday (May 6th).

    One aspect of the Greek situation that has received very little attention in the Irish and international Press is the fact that Greece is one of the major arms purchasing states in Europe spending billions of € in all kinds of weaponry.

    One almost secret aspect of the Greek Government discussions with the IMF has been this issue of arms procurement. The IMF Chairman Dominique Kahn has apparently indicated that Greece cannot continue buying submarines, ultra modern aircraft and the most up-to-date weaponry while receiving €110 billion of loans.

    In the latest available public statement,Greek Minister of Defence Venizelos had announced last February that the Greek defence budget, incorporating procurement, maintenance and wages for the armed forces was an incredible €6 billion – or 2.8% of the GDP – a higher percentage than either France or the UK!!

    Leaked information from the IMF talks indicates that they are discussing a cutback of around €700 million for the current year. Every flight of a military aircraft, and there are dozens every single day, is estimated to cost the Greek taxpayer around €35,000!!

    In another development, the Greek Ministry of Defence has been negotiating with Germany to get back some of the €2billion spent on two German submarines – one of which has proven to be unusable….. while most analysts expect thst defence expenditure will be cut around 10% by the end of the year, opinions on the feasibility of such a measure are as yet very divided.

  3. Comment by: Pope Epopt

    May 5th 2010 at 11:05

    Greek anger. They are showing us the way as the crisis spreads.

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