SF Tops Westminster Poll-Unionist Rejectionists A Minority
The results of the 2010 Westminster elections were inconclusive in Britain. But in the North of Ireland they marked a new stage in the development of long-term trends, which comprises the break-up of the unionist bloc, the rise of Nationalism and within that the rise of Sinn Fein as its most resolute expression. SF is now the largest party in the North.
The votes for main parties are as follows, with the 2005 results in brackets. Details can be found on the BBC website.
Sinn Fein 25.5% 5 seats (24.3%, unch)
DUP 25.0% 8 seats (33.7%, -1)
SDLP 16.5% 3 seats (17.5%, unch)
UUP/UCUNF 15.2% 0 seats (17.8%, -1)
Alliance 6.3% 1 seat (3.9%, +1)
IND (ex-UUP) 3.3% 1 seat (N/A)
TUV 3.9% 0 seats (N/A)
Even in the narrow terms of Westminster politics, there were 3 losses for those tied more closely to Tories, and the victors were all women; Naomi Long (ALL), Sylvia Hermon (IND) an Michelle Gildernew (SF). Each of them defeated an opponent who was more closely tied to the Tory Party, in Michelle Gildernew’s case one who had declared he would take the Tory whip.
The voters of East Belfast may be less cheered if they discover that the Alliance’s partners in the LibDems agree to prop up a Tory Party which achieved just 36.1% of the total Westminster vote, which would make Cameron the Tory PM with the lowest share of the vote in history, barely more than 1 in 3 voters. Sylvia Hermon’s, “I’m just not a Tory” resignation from the UUP and subsequent surge in her vote (+13%) should be taken as an indicator of deep-seated dislike of the Tories, and their threats to public spending. Of course Michelle Gildernew will remain an implacable opponent of misrule from Westminster, especially in its backwoodsmen variety of the Tory party, although it seems the SDLP were content for a Tory to win versus Sinn Fein. The association with the Tories was toxic for many candidates; Rodney Connor got 1,600 votes less in Fermanagh & South Tyrone than the combined unionist votes of 2005.
But that should not obscure a more profound underlying trend. The SDLP (16.5%) was the 3rd largest party, as Unionism continues to fragment. Together the nationalist vote was 42% of the total. In South Belfast, SF stood aside for the SDLP, but it is clear that many Republicans did not vote, up to 2,500, perhaps punishing the SDLP for not reciprocating in Fermanagh. This would have taken the combined Nationalist vote up to 42.4%, from 41.8% in 2005.Within that bloc, the Nationalist vote is increasingly a Republic one, SF up 1.2% and SDLP down 1.0% from 2005. These are both long-term trends, supported by demographic, social and political trends.
In perspective, in 1969 Nationalists won just 11.8% of the vote and were dominated by the old Nationalist party. By 1997, Nationalists polled 40.9% of the vote, and within that Republicans polled 16.6%. In 2010 they rose to over 42% and SF polled 25.5%.
The electorate is becoming increasingly nationalist, and within that increasingly Republican.
These trends are mirrored in Unionism. With the rise of Nationalism and an inability to marginalise Republicanism comes an increasing obligation to accept Nationalists as political and economic peers. As a result, it is the rejectionists in Unionism who are getting squeezed.
Jim Allister’s TUV polled just 26,000 votes, or 3.9%, while as recently as the European elections of 2009 they had won 66,000 votes, or 13.5% of the poll on a platform of refusing to talk to, let alone work with SF. The UUP, which at Tory bidding had rejected the transfer of policing and justice powers on the eve of the poll, received just 102,000 votes or 15.2% in its new incarnation as part of the party of Cameron, Osborne and Gove, and no seats. The once dominant political force in the North now faces a crisis of existence. And even the spectacular 22.9% swing against First Minister Peter Robinson in East Belfast did not benefit critics of working alongside SF, but went instead to the Alliance Party, who like to portray themselves as inclusive and above the political fray based on attitudes to Partition.
If, as seems likely, Clegg does prop up Cameron, votes for parties in the North of Ireland, Wales an Scotland will matter little at Westminster. Voters outside of England will continue to find their voice is better heard through their various Assemblies. But the Westminster election results provide an important snapshot of the political trends in the North.
Anti-Toryism is a factor among wider sections of the Unionist electorate, while it is becoming increasingly accommodative to working with Nationalists and Republicans. Unionist rejectionists are being rejected. As a whole, the electorate is becoming increasingly Nationalist and within that increasingly Republican. SF topped the poll in the 2009 European elections. Clearly that was not a fluke as it is now the largest party in the Westminster elections of 2010.
Discussion
We welcome and encourage lively discussion from the public about articles on Irish Left Review. You can leave a comment using the form at the bottom of the page. Please read through the existing comments before posting your own.
This article is also being discussed on the following websites:
Comment by: Garibaldy
May 10th 2010 at 14:05
One thing I think worth bearing in mind is that neither the Provos nor the DUP stood in all 18 seats (the provos stood aside in one, the DUP in two). Had they both stood in all 18, the DUP would have topped the poll, so it is possible and perhaps likely that the DUP will top the poll at next year’s elections.