
Do the Crime & Hand Out the Punishment
According to Brian Cowen today, NTMA’s Oliver Whelan has “made it very clear that we are seen as a stable economy, forging ahead with taking decisions.” This was said in relation to Moody’s decision to downgrade Irish debt to Aa2 from Aa1. So, while rating agencies carry the usual health warning considering their part in boosting sales of dodgy financial instruments, you have to question how a positive endorsement can be gleaned from such a negative opinion.
And that the government imagines that simply ‘taking decisions’ is a positive thing is hardly reassuring. As we have seen, it is the decisions they have taken throughout their time in government that have caused more hardship, a continued deterioration of the economy and a deepening of the debt crisis. The government likes to present itself as the prudent housekeeper, cutting back on the luxury items in order to balance the household budget. That we are faced not with an accountancy problem but an economic one is brushed aside.
Despite the diplomatic language of Moody’s Dietmar Hornung, lead analyst for Ireland, that “Ireland has turned the corner”, this is further proof that those decisions are making matters worse. Hornung’s point, that the Irish government’s “gradual but significant loss of financial strength, as reflected by its deteriorating debt affordability” suggests that an economy increasingly weakened through deflation has to pay for a growing deficit through more expensive borrowing. As Michael Burke on Progressive Economy puts it:
“The weakness of taxation revenues reflects the ongoing weakness of the domestic economy - the sector that the government chooses to tax. But the affordability of debt is no less serious. As existing government debt matures it has to be replaced by new debt issuance, and, now at higher interest rates. At the same time, borrowing is required to meet the tax-induced widening of the deficit. On top of this, the government, who can in no way risk the country’s international reputation by borrowing a cent for investment purposes, can repeatedly find the resources to provide further bank bailouts.
All of this is leading towards disastrous outcomes. This is reflected in the market interest rates on government debt, and does not support the idea widely promoted that the economy is being rewarded for its fiscal austerity drive.”
So it is not down whether the bond market will reward austerity or punish us for some sort of fiscal malfeasance but whether the economy will have the means to cover its own debt.
Again as Michael Burke put it today:
“ESRI is forecasting that general government debt will increase by 20% of GDP this year and 8% next. In the impossible event that no new deficits were incurred thereafter, the domestic (taxed) part of the economy would have to grow at 5.5% in nominal terms simply to keep pace with interest costs. The ESRI forecasts for GNP are for a cumulative fall in nominal GNP of 0.5% over the next two years.
If any business were obliged to borrow at above its competitors’ rates, it would ensure that there was a significant positive return on that borrowing.”
In Michael’s full post, he then shows how investment through the NDP provides a much better return in order to close the deficit than cut backs and increasingly expensive rolled over borrowing.
Alan McQuaid, chief economist at Bloxham Stockbrokers in Dublin says in the Bloomsburg report on the downgrade:
“I don’t buy the argument that bond investors are going to punish Ireland.”
Indeed, why should they, when the Irish government is doing it for them.

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