
Batt O’Keefe Launches New Strategy to Reduce Unemployment
Apologies for being away so long - workload and such.Will be attempting to provide some insight into the issues facing us (IMF receivership, the apocalypse) in more bite-sized contributions. That’s the plan, anyway. Let’s see how it goes.
Batt O’Keefe has made a name for himself, launching documents predicting thousands, even hundreds of thousands of jobs over the next four years (IDA, Enterprise Ireland, Innovation, Employers’ PRSI exemption). Now he has a new one.
In the last budget, the Government projected that employment would grow by about 20,000 next year and 150,000 by 2014. In their new Economic and Budgetary Outlook, the Government now projects that employment will fall by 5,000, and will only grow by approximately 75,000 by 2014. That’s 75,000 less jobs than previously estimated.
Surely that would play havoc with our unemployment rate but no. The Government is projecting almost no change in the Live Register (only rising by 0.25 percent). How’s that?
Well, a lot of people could be returning to education. A lot could just give up and drop out of the labour force. Still others could be booted off the Live Register through ‘administrative’ measures (e.g. tightening up eligibility for benefit and means-tested programmes). But the Government gives us the main reason:
‘Net outward migration will restrain the pace of growth in labour supply, which combined with the increase in net employment will reduce unemployment to under 10% by the end of the forecast horizon.’
That is, emigration.
So the new employment policy is to hope that more and more go to other countries to find a job.
I predict this policy will be more successful than Batt’s previous efforts.
Discussion
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Comment by: Pope Epopt
Nov 8th 2010 at 20:11
Especially outside the capital, my belief is that unemployment and underemployment rates are significantly under-counted already and likely to become progressively more so.
And yes, they are, unsubtly, showing us the way to the door.
Comment by: William Wall
Nov 9th 2010 at 09:11
Michael I noted this particularly clever piece of economics. I must admit I was simultaneously both shocked and not-shocked - a strange state.
I was shocked that a government could blatantly state that it was hoping as many people as possible would fuck off (for entirely patriotic reasons), especially in a country that has virtually fetishised the pain of emigration (songs, stories, novels, films etc).
The not-shocked state occurred because I’ve noted an increasing nakedness in the declarations of this government. After all, what was he talking about except ‘downsizing’, downsizing a population, but in this case, mainly a working population and therefore ‘downsizing a work force’. Or put it another way, he was externalising some of our costs. Ireland, after all, is an economy, not a republic.
Comment by: LeftAtTheCross
Nov 9th 2010 at 15:11
The infamous “on yer bike” dictat from Norman Tebbitt in 1981.
Of course with this “small open economy” it’s less bike and more ferry/plane.
Plus ca change.