
A Job-Loss Recovery?
When the CSO’s industrial production numbers were produced there was a sense among some commentary that at least this side of the economic equation is producing plus signs. But they might want to pause that until they read the whole report (and not just the headline figures).
First, production figures tend to rise in September, after a slack August. Still, we’re in better shape this year than last as the index is higher.
Second, when you break down the figures between the ‘modern’ (foreign multinational) sector and ‘traditional’ (mostly indigenous) the picture becomes mixed. The moderns increased production by 17 percent over August. The traditionals actually fell back marginally. Given that there are nearly twice as many employed in the traditional sector this should give us a bit of worry.
But here’s the ‘hold your horses’ moment: the CSO produced quarterly results - from 3rd quarter last year to 2nd quarter this year, a period of nine months.
- Modern Sector: Production increased by 11.2 percent. Employment fell by 3,900 (or 5.4 percent)
- Traditional Sector: Production increased by 5.1 percent. Employment fell by 3,700 (or 2.7 percent)
So, production increases and jobs are lost. Of course, we shouldn’t expect this pattern to continue. There is considerable slack in these sectors. Ramping up production may not immediately generate jobs but as production continues to climb, jobs should come on-stream. That’s the theory.
But the main driver is the modern sector, in particular the chemical/pharmaceutical sector. These are capital-intensive. Job creation will be minimal compared to what is needed.
The recession was not caused by a collapse in external demand; our net exports have held up reasonable well. So we shouldn’t fall into the trap of ‘export-led recovery’ thinking. This sector will not lead the recovery. That will come from domestic sectors.
And it is these sectors that are being lined up for a savaging by the Government’s new budgetary strategy.
Discussion
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Comment by: Pope Epopt
Nov 12th 2010 at 13:11
So what about a domestic complementary fiat currency (or network of local currencies) which could deal with the deflation and lack of liquidity in the collapsing domestic economy?
Comment by: roisin de rossa
Nov 12th 2010 at 16:11
I think that the key statistic is the balance of payments; latest CSO figures show this remaining in negative territory coming in for an annual figure of somewhere just below that of last year at about -€4.2 billion.
Now that’s about half what it was back in 2007/08 but its still negative and demonstrates value continues to drain out of the wider economy.
The collapse in the balance from 2008-09 was due a massive fall in the merchanise imported into Ireland rather than any great increase in our exports.
The question is whether increased output if it continues will lead to an expansion in overall employment. That’s not simple as it’s likely the contraction has lead to structural changes within the economy and and as you point out growth is highest in those sectors with the highest proportion of organic composition of capital. As such, it’s very likely employment growth will lag way behind export growth - we may well experience a jobless and laggard recovery even if we get through the sovereign debt crisis.
With the collapse in private consumption and the absence of any stimulus from the public sector, it is unlikely in the extreme that growth will come from domestic demand. All the indices are negative - balance of payments, private consumption, investment, public expenditure trends.
The ruling class are driving the economy into the ground.