Flying With Pigs
When I re-tweeted Labour Councillor Cian O’Callaghan’s news statement calling on Labour not to enter coalition with Fine Gael, Brendan Ogle suggested such an eventuality was akin to pigs flying. Maybe so. But then humans don’t fly either. So let’s take a hypothetical flight with our fellow unwinged mammals and see what the landscape looks like from above.
Labour has a historic opportunity to become the official opposition. This is nothing to dismiss. Up to 40 percent of the electorate voted for Left parties and independents, electing 60 deputies. This is the largest contingent of progressive TDs since the founding of the state. Given what might have been - with a number of progressive candidates just missing out, the potential for growing this progressive alliance in the short-term is high.
In many areas the Left is the dominant force. In a number of areas the combined Left vote exceeded 50 percent with some exceeding 60 percent (Dublin Central, South Central, North West). These types of results should be a game changer.
Fianna Fail’s collapse was not just an indictment on that party’s policies, but on the outdated political divide that has dominated Irish politics since the 1930s - namely, Fianna Fail vs. everyone else. That divide no longer exists. It has been substituted by a divide between the Left and the Right.
A strong, cooperative Left in the Dail could achieve many things against a Fine Gael government supported by right-wing independents and an emaciated Fianna Fail (which would have no choice but to support a party that is essentially carrying its own policies). It could build a broad alliance in civil society - bringing together trade unions and social organisations to campaign on a progressive consensus that already exists on economic issues.
It could expose the failure of austerity economics which Fine Gael is determined to carry through - public spending cuts, wage devaluation, privatisation, public sector downsizing, etc.
It could develop alternative policies - not just on the issues of investment and taxation, but on the very business model of the failed Celtic Tiger boom: the inability of indigenous enterprise to create a strong base in the international market; the failure of native private sector investors to invest in a strong industrial and enterprise sector. This could lead us into new area of policy - public enterprise, municipal enterprise, new private sector models with greater stake-holder participation.
And here’s the good news: a Fine Gael government would, from the start, be unstable and after two-three years (maybe less if they really let loose on the economy and society) would become unsustainable. Progressives united inside and outside the Dail could mount a fundamental challenge on conservatism across the broad spectrum of policy with a view to bringing down the Government in the short term.
And there would be only one alternative. A government of the Left. With 60 seats in the Dail, the finishing line becomes even closer. With greater cooperation, that finishing line is in sight. We should see the 2011 election and an election in a couple of years as part of a short-term continuum - a set of dominos falling; first Fianna Fail, then Fine Gael.
What Labour needs to do, even as they enter into talks with Fine Gael, is to keep this alternative sequence of events in mind; they must hold their nerve. There are any number of reasons why the talks between the two parties could break down, the biggest being Fine Gael’s determination to continue Fianna Fail policies under a different party logo; Fine Gael’s neo-liberal, anti-public realm politics.
What Labour needs to do is realise that their time for waiting is over. That in the very short-term they will be able to achieve something that has only been dreamed about for the last 80 years - a progressive government led by Labour itself. A little patience, a lot of determination, and a whole load of vision - that’s what it would take.
That’s what the political landscape looks like from above, flying with our mammal cousins. Back on the ground, however, it gets trickier. Pursing a broken alignment and supporting a Fine Gael-led government (hardly a historical innovation); continuing with austerity economics no matter how ameliorated; dividing the range of progressive opinion just at the moment when that opinion is on the verge becoming a dominant force: Labour should be aware. The electorate dealt with Fianna Fail in a pretty rough manner. If they are denied the change they were promised, their anger could easily turn.
Labour could end up in the barnyard, in the political muck and slurry. And that would be a shame. After all, pigs are clean, intelligent and personable creatures. Wouldn’t it be better if we took to the air with them? If only to glimpse the better future?
Discussion
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Comment by: William Wall
Mar 1st 2011 at 12:03
Michael, I couldn’t agree more with this analysis. Labour is in a position to create that situation that the left has sought for years - a left-right divide in the Dáil. Such a divide would expose the philosophy (sic) of the FF+FG nexus as neoliberal and strip it of the populist gloss that allows them to pretend they’re in favour of ‘protecting the vulnerable’. It will be disastrous if Labour loses the chance to bring about this historic dichotomy.
Comment by: William Wall
Mar 1st 2011 at 12:03
I also concur with your assessment of pigs who are, in my view, the most maligned of animals. Their only drawback is a tendency to eat their own children - a tendency shared by our social system here.
Comment by: Roger Cole
Mar 1st 2011 at 13:03
Fianna Fail have already declared they would support a minority FG government so there already is another option available to FG. This would allow the Labour Party to build up a left opposition which could starting with a nearly 40% vote could mean a majority left government in the next year or so. However this can only be achieved, or even worth achieving, if the left is clear to the electorate that the debt now owed primarily to the ECB has to be either massively cut or defaulted on. We would also have to make it clear that if the ECB refuses to do agree, then life would not be easy either. In fact, either way, the Irish people face tough times, even if we had a wealth tax. The left case amounts to saying that bad and all as a default would be, its a great deal better than giving all our wealth and income to German, French and British bankers whose gamble on the Irish Banks went bellyup. It could mean being expelled from the Euro, a massive expansion in our fishing, the nationalisation of the Corrib gas fields, the restoration of our national independence, democracy and neutrality, a more equitable distribution of our national wealth, but at the same time tougher economic times for ordinary people until these transformations take effect.
Comment by: Féilim Ó hAdhmaill
Mar 1st 2011 at 13:03
I agree totally with your view Michael - but will the leadership of the Labour Party?
Féilim Ó hAdhmaill
Comment by: Thomas Clarke
Mar 1st 2011 at 14:03
I agree totally with your view Roger -But will the labour leadership resist the merks and the perks and will they instead take the opportunity to top up their already hefty pensions and go for gold in their own pockets.
Kenny and his gang will be pumping billions into the Irish banks as soon as next week and As I have been highlighting all along the hidden losses of Allied Irish Bank and especially Bank of Ireland are holding in these (Off Shore Braches in the IFSC) will now be exposed in a few weeks and I expect them to show derivatives losses of 70 to 100 Billion and this is just the start.
We will have to default in the end!
Comment by: Irishelectionliterature
Mar 1st 2011 at 14:03
A point was made that the age profile of the top brass in Labour makes them more likely to go into government as a few may retire at the next election. This despite the real prospect of having a Labour Taoiseach in five years time were they to go into opposition.
Kenny should be giving FF a call, they are heavily in debt, about to be bereft of influence and a period in government would probably be ideal in helping them rebuild.
Comment by: Brian
Mar 1st 2011 at 14:03
Its a nice idea Michael, but at this stage I feel the labour party in Ireland is closer to Fine Gael than Sinn Féin and certainly the ULA. There’s been no hint that Labour would default on even part of the bank debt, or make it a condition of partnership with FG. Labour won its biggest number of seats ever while doing everything wrong during the election campaign - why or how could they change that now?
Comment by: vincent wood
Mar 1st 2011 at 20:03
Whatever happens with the Labour Party vis-a-vis negotiations with Fine Gael, the position of the remaining progressive parties remains the same.
Fianna Fail need to be rendered irrelevent. As it stands, FF are the largest single opposition party and, as I understand it, will have the first crack at the government in terms of questions. The media will almost certainly treat them as the official opposition.
As I argued in my recent post on this site, it is therefore a strategically important move for SF, the ULA and progressive independents to discuss the forming of a group to take the lead opposition role. Fianna Fail can either be left spinning in the wilderness or be forced closer to FG.
I hope that Labour think again about coalition with FG and help break the mould, but I have yet to see the slightest evidence that they have even considered it. Their membership needs to raise this the leadership. The Trades Unions need to raise this with Labour.
In the meantime, the left need to force the pace and ensure that our voice is the dominant.
Comment by: William Wall
Mar 1st 2011 at 20:03
I’ve been thinking about your proposed strategy, Vincent - the technical group I mean - and I think it would serve everyone well. The only problem I can see is that SF probably want to create/maintain a separate identity in the hope of fitting into Labour’s place after the inevitable debacle at the next election. However, if SF was prepared to work with the others, a very powerful group indeed would develop. I think they should consider your suggestion very seriously.
Comment by: Tomboktu
Mar 1st 2011 at 21:03
“it is therefore a strategically important move for SF, the ULA and progressive independents to discuss the forming of a group to take the lead opposition role”
Under the current rules, SF cannot form a group with other TDs. It got more than seven TDs elected, and is officially a group. The only ones who can form a group ar the independents, the 2 x PBPA and 2 x SP TDs.
Comment by: William Wall
Mar 1st 2011 at 21:03
Tomboktu, that explains something I heard today. Thanks for the clarification. What a pity.
Comment by: vincent wood
Mar 1st 2011 at 21:03
@Tomboku
Well, that’s one option out. It would have to be close cooperation then. In any event, its loud and uppity voices that are required inside the chamber and echoed outside.
There will be two enemies in Leinster House (and some reactionary Independents along with them). Fianna Fail should not be given any room to try and distance themselves from the Irish Thatcherite position they share with FG. SF need to be careful not to be in the slightest seduced by FF inevitable rediscovery of republicanism.
What is equally of importance is that the left bury any sectarianism. Some prominent ULA people still fail to mention SF when talking about the left. This looks like the usual left elitist sectarianism and will need to stop if we dont want to loose sight of the bigger goal here.
Comment by: Déirdre O'Byrne
Mar 1st 2011 at 23:03
I think you have some sound ideas there Michael and anybody coming from a position of left wouldn’t have a problem with them. But alas, I would have to place my money on Brendan Ogle’s analogy of flying pork. Shorthall had a lot of support for her sentiments on ‘ragbags’and ‘motley crews’ from within her own party; from Quinn in particular. I believe, whereas there are some very genuine left people at grassroot level in Labour, the whip still rules and it is clearly in the hands of those who will compromise to neo-liberal values for opportunities of power and position in betrayal of those who seek equality and a fairer distribution of resources.
Comment by: Tomboktu
Mar 2nd 2011 at 00:03
“Shorthall had a lot of support for her sentiments on ‘ragbags’and ‘motley crews’ from within her own party; from Quinn in particular.”
Interesting, therefore that Ruairí Quinn was not selected to go into the negotiations. He is both a former party leader and has been Finance minister, and would know how that Department works.