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Wednesday, May 23rd 2012

The Irish Election 2011 - A success for the Left

Author: William Wall of Williamwall.net

Published: March 1st, 2011

Section: Articles, Politics

Discussion: 3 comments ↓

Possibly Related: , ,

Whatever happens in the coming weeks in terms of forming a coalition government, this election represents a great leap forward for the Irish Left. That’s not how the media here sees it - naturally - but it’s still objectively true.

In the last Dáil (parliament) the left vote stood at approximately 15%. After this election that vote has increased substantially. We operate a rather complicated proportional representation system that allows a single vote to be counted as many times as there are candidates (the single transferable vote), which tends to represent to a high degree of accuracy the proportion of votes achieved by each party. Hence, if a party gets 20% of the vote they should have approximately 20% of the seats. The Left’s share of the first preferences in this election was 38.27% and it received approximately 38.5% of the seats - 64 seats as opposed to 24 in 2007. As I write there are recounts in progress in three electoral constituencies so I’m making certain assumptions about how those counts will turn out, but no matter what happens the essential situation will be as I describe.

There have been other high-water marks for the Left, but none as good as this (I’m open to correction by historians), and certainly, since the hegemony of neoliberalism, nothing approaching this in the last twenty years. Many of the parties and individuals that make up this vote represent radical anti-neoliberalism and anti-capitalism. There are anarchists, socialists and old fashioned labour members here.

Now, alas, the likely outcome is that Labour (37 seats) will enter coalition with the right-wing Fine Gael party (70 seats). On one hand, Labour is strong enough to moderate the loonier right wingers and protect some of the things that need protecting (health, education, minimum wage etc). On the other hand, they are likely to suffer by being associated with Fine Gael’s slash and burn policies. The challenge for the Left will be to hold what they have and build on it for the next election.

My own preference would have been for Fine Gael to enter coalition with other right-wing parties such as the outgoing government of Fianna Fáil, their natural bedfellows. Then the Dáil would align itself along left-right lines and we would have a real fight for the next elections, which is likely to be sooner rather than later. A coalition of all the Left parties would be a stunning opposition. It would have a combined strength of over 60 members. Some of its members are devastatingly powerful speakers. It would be a force for the people.

In any case, this is a happy day for the Left. After many shameful elections in which the victors again and again were the corrupt, venial, jobbing, stupid and arrogant Fianna Fáil party, the people of Ireland have awakened from their long dream of neoliberalism. The western isle is awake, even if it is awash with domestic and international debt. It remains to be seen what we will do in our wakefulness, but it is necessary to hope.

Photo of the count in the RDS for the general election 2011, courtesy of Streets of Dublin’s photostream.

Discussion

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  1. Comment by: William Wall

    Mar 1st 2011 at 13:03

    Sorry for the over-explanation such as ‘Dáil (parliament)’. This was originally posted on my blog and the explanations are intended for international readers. However, ILR has plenty of those too, so maybe it’s not out of place.
    I’ve since decided that my 38% of first preferences is a bit high, but the seat proportion remains more or less the same and the thrust of my argument is unchanged. I note also that other ILR writers are making the same point - Michael Taft and Vincent Woods for example. In fact I believe the feeling is general on the left, with the possible exception of the upper echelons of the ILP. Perhaps they should rethink their position before committing to what is certain to be a disastrous strategy.

  2. Comment by: David Mulligan

    Mar 1st 2011 at 22:03

    If Labour enters into coalition with Fine Gael, which seems inevitable given the small number of independents then what will be the consequences for the Left in general?
    If Labour enter into coalition then the largest opposition party will be FF which means they will receive a boost and more seats in the next election. If however SF joins forces with the ULA (probably unlikely) then it might be the case that Gerry Adams would be leader of the opposition.
    What are the author’s opinions on these scenarios and how badly will Labour (and the left in general) suffer from it’s association with FG?

  3. Comment by: William Wall

    Mar 1st 2011 at 22:03

    Hi David. THis discussion is also going on on Michael Taft’s post
    http://www.irishleftreview.org/2011/03/01/flying-pigs/
    Where I’ve just discovered that SF can;t enter into a technical group because they’ve got too many seats (technically). But close cooperation is definitely an option and I heard Gerry Adams on the radio yesterday touting their abilities to work well with people. In any case, we can expect sparks to fly.
    Labour’s association with FG will be devastating for Labour. I think it’s a wasteful and retrograde move.

This article is also being discussed on the following websites:

  1. Mar 2nd 2011

    General Election Dust Settles – Some Interesting Reactions « Tomás Ó Flatharta

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