NAMA Wine Lake looks at the drops in house prices and the likelihood that the Central Bank of Ireland's Baseline Scenario, which is intended to model the worst possible anticipated outcome, of a final drop of 60% from peak might be optimistic. Worth remembering too that Morgan Kelly's prediction was for a 80% drop.
"It might be worth pointing out that NAMA has recently said that it feels that prices have dropped by more than is claimed by the ESRI/PTSB – NAMA’s chairman, Frank Daly said that prices in November 2009 were already 50% off peak whereas the ESRI/PTSB was, at that point, claiming that prices were only 29% off. Estate agents and property professionals have also claimed that actual price declines have been greater than those shown in the ESRI/PTSB house price series. And if NAMA is correct, that may mean that prices may not have much further to fall by reference to the CBI’s baseline scenario, but it should also mean that prices are already 50%-plus off their peaks in 2007".
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