It’s Official - Austerity isn’t Working | Michael Burke
It’s Official - Austerity isn’t Working
Michael Burke has some interesting things to say about the 2012 Estimates published over the weekend. Ultimately, the real indicator is not the Estimates, but the General Government Balance which shows that the deficit will be higher next year. Considering that the effect of last year’s austerity budget can be clearly seen to have failed in its objective of correcting government finances, why is the FG/Labour government following the same course again? More to the point “is there actually some other, unstated aim of policy?”
“These Estimates, indeed the very name Exchequer, are a relic of colonial history which was to account to for how much Britain was kindly granting this country (and not at all including the private sector looting which was the purpose of the project). A similar process still takes place in the North of this island and it is a mark of how little the official outlook has changed here in the last 90 years that they are still used.
Instead, the EU insists on a definition of the General Government Balance which actually includes all aspects of government finances, not these ‘Estimates’ which are just a part of central government expenditure and income. In particular it includes, where the Estimates do not, the payments and receipts of the Social Insurance Fund, the National Pension Reserve Fund, Local Authorities and other items. The projected outcome for government finances on the GGB measure is shown below. This shows the deficit on the GGB rising in 2012. This was after €6bn was taken out of the economy in fiscal tightening in last year’s Budget, and an entirely new (and regressive) tax introduced in the form of the USC. The verdict is clea: the deficit is rising, not falling. The deficit as a proportion of GDP is projected to stabilise, but only because of a growth forecast which may, or may not be realised.”

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