Monthly Archives For August 2015

Cameron’s Swarm is Europe’s Solution

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David Cameron labelled them a ‘swarm’. Thousands of them have died in the Mediterranean.  Border fences are being built to keep them out:  Hungary, Spain, Bulgaria, Calais.  The Slovakian Government will take a handful of them but only if they are ‘Christian’ (apparently they don’t do Muslims or Mosques).  And all the while millions are being spent  on aperverse mini-stimulus – as ‘defence contractors, outsourcing companies and security forces find willing buyers for their security-based “solutions”, bringing new surveillance systems, patrol vessels, co-ordination centres and detention facilities to the market with little scrutiny or due diligence.‘  A rational political and economic response gives way to militarisation.

This is what has been labelled the ‘migration crisis’ – as hundreds of thousands are seeking refuge, asylum, work and a better life while risking oppression and even their lives to come to Europe. 

Much has been written on this subject – including this insightful analysis by Dr. Vincent Durac.  I don’t intend to survey all the issues or appropriate responses as this crisis has many origins and dynamics and will require substantial doses of enlightened national policy combined with international cooperation.  But here are a couple of thoughts.

First, the men, women and children that make up Cameron’s swarm – they are not a problem, they are a solution.  They are a solution to Europe’s ageing demographic, skill base and employment crisis.

A key part of this is the fact that Europe is growing old.  Using the EU’s main scenario demographic projection, we see that the EU’s total population will rise by 17 million while the number of over 65s will rise by 54 million.  Working age population will fall by 34 million.  12 of the 28 EU countries are actually projected to experience an overall fall in their populations.  With a higher proportion of elderly and a falling number of working age men and women, Europe is set to suffer a slow age crash.

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Who Was Right? The Magic Trick of Austerity

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The Irish economy has finally recovered 8 years after the slump began. This is the longest depression in the history of the State.  Since its inception the economy has grown at around 3% a year. So the lost output over 8 years means that the economy is now about 25% below its trend growth rate.

Supporters of austerity will claim that growth is a result of austerity. But this is a conjurer’s trick, asking us to suspend disbelief. The reality is very different. The Irish economy experienced a change of policy and a change of circumstances. It was these that produced recovery. Everything else is sleight of hand.

When Fine Gael/Labour came to office they implemented their own version of austerity. The response of the economy predictably was to re-enter recession from mid-2012 onwards for 4 quarters, creating the rare phenomenon of a double-dip recession. This is shown in Fig. 1 below. Recovery only happened later.

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Fig.1 Real GDP

The policy response was marked, if little publicised. From the end of 2012 onwards there were no new net austerity measures. Instead government spending was actually increased. This was a turn towards stimulus spending, not austerity and is shown in Fig.2 below.

It is not possible to claim that austerity led to recovery. Government spending was increased after the end of 2012 and recovery began 6 months later.

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Fig.2 Real Government Spending

The change of circumstances was even more dramatic and had a bigger overall effect on growth.  Since early 2014 the Euro has fallen by 25% against the US Dollar, providing a boost to exporters across the Eurozone and especially to very open economies like Ireland. Many other currencies are linked to the US Dollar in one form or another, notably the Chinese Renminbi. Together, these two economies alone account for 30% of all EU trade.

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Housing Policy is More Than Pulling Levers

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This article originally appeared on Eoin O’Mahony’s blog 53 Degrees on the 17th of August

In the new online newspaper, Dublin Inquirer, Lorcan Sirr stated that the most serious problem ”with housing in Dublin…is this:  at the state level, housing policy is dominated by an inappropriate and politically motivated rural ideology…” This ideology is made manifest by a constant drive for home ownership.  This leads to discrimination against urban housing and elected politicians who are concerned only with ”road frontage  and planning permissions.” I understand that Lorcan’s article was a version of a talk he gave at the MacGill Summer School in late July. But there are a number of problems with his argument as presented, the biggest one of these being that you cannot talk about housing in Ireland unless you talk about social class.

Houses  and flats are built, rented and bought.  People live in housing of all sorts and sizes and communities develop around these forms of housing. We find things in common with people around us and we build and sustain communities. These are productive relations  and housing is one outcome of these relations.  In this way, housing is not simply a matter of sufficient  units being built but decisions taken about how we should live.  It is a matter of politics, not technical capacity.  Lorcan’s argument about a rural ideology owes more to the second than the first.  Recent research  has pointed significant changes to housing over the years. In a report for hardly radicalised Jesuit  Centre for Faith and Justice  (JCFJ) earlier this year, the authors wrote that:

The  prolonged  period  of growth in the owner-occupier  sector reflected State-driven tenure strategies [since the mid-1940s], employing a range of direct and indirect incentives.

In other words, there is nothing natural or essential about an increase, post-1940s, in the proportion of the population living in owner-occupied  tenure. It is a matter of policy, an effort by strategy and tactics reflecting particular relations within a class, to achieve particular ends.  As the authors of the JCFJ demonstrate, owner-occupation is actually in decline since the early 1990s. The NESC has written recently on social class and tenure in Irish housing. They have noted a trend amongst different social groups:

Mortgage-holding is declining most among young people in the un- skilled, semi-skilled and skilled manual classes, particularly the former.

… [And] with the sharp decline in local-authority housing construction and other supports for low-income buyers from the mid-1980s, this option is no longer available for many younger people in socio-economic groups with lower incomes.

Sirr states that ”housing [policy] is regarded as being about three things only: planning, selling price and construction cost.” He is correct to point out that professions like planners have an overweening influence on housing in Ireland but local authority housing sections are not ”endured” by their staff. The electoral cycle is also a powerful influence on decision making. Local authorities are constrained by decisions by the last few governments, and particularly the current one, that are determined to starve social housing of funding. The last time the Irish government completed over 1,000 local authority houses was in 2010.  In the four year period since (for which data is available) about 1,300 local authority houses have been completed (source: CSO). In contrast,  during the same time period, over 35,000 units of private housing have been completed.

What this research and much more show is that these are the results of choices and political ones at that.  When  sufficient political pressure is brought to bear, much like the water tax struggle since 2013, things get changed.  It is not a matter of personnel and the over-familiarity among housing associations and local councils. Levers don’t get wearily pulled out of habit; political choices are argued for and, at times, forced. An argument that relies on an abstract sense of housing form, for ex- ample one-off housing, and the capacity of people to reproduce living conditions are both problems. We only have to drive through Leitrim, Longford and Roscommon to notice the longer-term effects of trying to cluster houses at the edge of villages ill-suited to suburban  housing forms.  These  are, however, the results of political decisions, not individual choice. It seems to me that Sirr’s argument relies on blam- ing ordinary people for putting themselves in poorly-planned housing. Decisions on housing are made on many scales.

I agree with him when he argues we need better data but a housing policy must serve people first, not a technocratic process of ’build and they will be housed’.  There is no sense that this ’rural ideology’ can be seen in material terms other than its rep- etition for want of an alternative just appearing.   I argue therefore that we need to understand social class when housing is considered,  particularly from a formal policy point of view. The use of adequate data is a necessary step. So too is avoid- ing unhelpful categories like rural and urban or more importantly between renters and owner-occupiers.  Housing in Ireland, particularly right now, is a more dynamic process of class relations than is evident from Sirr’s analysis.

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Return: A Palestinian Memoir

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Everyone wants to get home: at the end of the day, a place of comfort and security, repose. It’s not the magnitude of the space – a bedsit can be remembered with affection – but the space itself, somewhere you fit in.

For Ghada Karmi home is Palestine, the place she left as an infant in 1948, and she returns there in 2005 to Ramallah in the West Bank, the seat of the Palestinian Authority (PA), after half a century spent living in Britain. She secures a job as a consultant for the Media & Communications  ministry of the PA, which at that time also administers Gaza although a Hamas government is about to emerge there and challenge Fateh’s long-standing claim to represent Palestinian aspirations to statehood. Hamas is prepared to launch rocket attacks on Israel; Fateh is accused of subservience to the occupying power and its ongoing building of a high concrete wall to divide up the West Bank and screen off Jewish settlements from the Arab areas around them.

Fateh’s energies are caught up in the myriad NGOs that emerged in the aftermath of the Oslo Accords, when Palestinian statehood seemed only a matter of time. Israel plays with time, waiting for the generation who fled their homes in 1948 to die out and bury with themselves the right to one day return to their land. After a massacre in the village of Deir Yassin, when Jewish militias killed some 120 inhabitants, Ghada Karmi’s family departed, thinking to return when the situation calmed down. That was fifty-seven years earlier. In Ramalleh in 2005, political priorities have changed and  Karmi sees the formation by the PA of an 8,000-strong ‘counter terrorism force’ which brings murderous attacks on Hamas members and the gratitude of Israel.

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August Socialist Voice is Out Now!

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The August Socialist Voice is now available online

In this issue:

Greek and all European workers paying a heavy price

Eugene McCartan

As events unfold in Greece it’s clear that the EU is determined to make Greek workers pay for the crisis now engulfing the country.
The Greek debt, like the Irish debt, is simply unsustainable and unpayable. The impact and renewed assault on Greek workers will be felt throughout the European Union: it will not be confined or contained within the borders of Greece.

http://www.communistpartyofireland.ie/sv/01-greece.html

International Development Bank set up by BRICS states

The “BRICS” countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) stepped onto the stage of global finance last month with the launch of the New Development Bank in Shanghai. The six BRICS countries had agreed to set up the bank at the group’s sixth summit meeting in Brazil in July 2014.

http://www.communistpartyofireland.ie/sv/02-brics.html

Social democracy tries to reinvent itself

Tommy McKearney

Just as capitalism has the knack of changing its shape, social democracy also displays an extraordinary ability to reinvent itself, and almost always to the detriment of the working class.

http://www.communistpartyofireland.ie/sv/03-soc-dem.html

Racist crime raises its ugly head

Paul Doran

There is nothing more detestable than the hate some people have for people of colour or people of a different ethnicity. This disgusting trait has recently raised its ugly head in Clondalkin, Co. Dublin.

http://www.communistpartyofireland.ie/sv/04-racism.html

Maria’s story (continued)

Readers may recall “One woman’s experience of Job Bridge” from the November 2014 issue

I have a new job, working in a call centre. They recommend that we come to work fifteen minutes before every shift, so we can clock in and have our computer turned on, ready for action.

http://www.communistpartyofireland.ie/sv/05-maria.html

Painless “postcapitalism”—a utopian dream

Nick Wright

Paul Mason has conjured up a very 21st-century formula for the replacement of capitalism. It combines all the elements of a problem-free route to “postcapitalism,” rather than the old techniques of revolt, revolution, and working-class power, and relies—it seems—on the facility of the internet to permit the free transfer of information combined with the ability of human beings to devise forms of exchange that evade the capitalist market.

http://www.communistpartyofireland.ie/sv/06-mason.html

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LookLeft 22 in Shops Now!

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LookLeft 22 is in Easons stores and hundreds of selected newsagents across the country now.

Only €2.00, the highlights of this issue include:


Greek Lessons
– What can be learnt from the referendum and negotiations in Greece? Gerry Grainger and Ronan Burtenshaw debate.

You Can’t Eat a Flag – Chris Bailie and Paddy Wilson take a look at the state of Protestant working class politics in Northern Ireland.

Spotlight on Denis O’Brien – A critical look at the controversial business man and media baron’s career.

Take Back the City – LookLeft looks and how working class communities are seeking to assert control of their cities.

Leading the charge – Dara McHugh looks at the next steps for Right2Water and the water charges movement.

Can we organise now? – The union movement will not be saved by planned collective bargaining legislation alone. Richard O’Hara investigates.

Bomb Girls – Hugo McGuinness on the social and political effects of WW1 munitions factories on Dublin’ Northside

Paving Paradise – A community garden in West Dublin digs up problems of church and community relations.

A different vision of society – LookLeft talks to the Cuban Ambassador about talks with the US, the Cuban social model and medical internationalism.

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