Economy

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Always the Artists: Week Three of the Bank Inquiry

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“Shadows never go away.
Might be you don’t see them,
but they’re always clinging to your heels.”

A Song of Ice and Fire

When I was a child in primary school my way of dealing with Irish class was to find a word in the question that matched a word in the text and hope for the best. The sentence I would find would be the one I’d read out. Sometimes it worked, sometimes it didn’t. But, it was a plan, and it helped me get through the hour.

In the absence of any understanding of the grammar, of the way the words actually relate to each other, you grab what you can and try to make sense of the situation.

In terms of the bank guarantee and bailout, and the different narratives that are being thrown out there, we can’t really do this – we can’t just pick out single words, single events, and use them to make our story. We need to have enough of an overview of the dynamics at play in order to make sure we don’t stray from the path as we go forward.

In other words, we need to understand the grammar that holds it all together, and one of the objectives of the bank inquiry is to fulfill this role.

It helps, of course, to have witnesses that understand this, and with Professor Patrick Honohan last week I’m not sure it did.

On paper the purpose of Honohan’s appearance before the Bank Inquiry Committee was to discuss his 2010 report, which looked at the regulatory and operational failure within the Central Bank and the Financial Regulator’s office. On the day itself, however, the proceedings were dominated by talk of the 2008 bank guarantee – the decision itself and supposed cost.

Honohan initially said that the net cost of the guarantee would be somewhere in the region of €40 billion. When he was challenged on this he revised the figure and, indeed, the parameters, acknowledging that his figure wasn’t for the guarantee alone but for the subsequent bailout. Even with this, Honohan had not factored in added costs such as interest repayments. The moment he gave the definitive-sounding figure of €40bn, though, he had handed the journalists the following day’s headline.

He followed his €40bn with another brash statement – that Brian Lenihan had been ‘overruled’ by a more senior politician with regard to saving Anglo Irish Bank. It was obvious that the ‘more senior politician’ he was referring to was Brian Cowen.

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If This Isn’t an Emergency, What is?

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If five percent of the population suddenly fell ill to an unknown disease a national emergency would be called.  Government agencies and health professionals would be brought together under the direction of an emergency cabinet committee to first diagnose the disease, come up with a cure and then deliver it.

Well, we have such a disease – and it affects not five percent but 30 percent of the population. It is not unknown –   It is the economic and social disease of deprivation.  The CSO released the 2013 Survey of Income and Living Conditions and the data on deprivation is truly alarming.

Deprivation 1There are now 1.4 million who are categorised by the CSO as living in deprivation.  There are well over 400,000 children living in households suffering from multiple deprivation experiences.  Since the start of the crisis, these numbers have more than doubled. The disease is spreading.

You are classified as ‘deprived’ if you unable to afford or experience two of the following items:

 

Two pairs of strong shoes * A warm waterproof overcoat * Buy new (not second-hand) clothes * Eat meat with meat, chicken, fish (or vegetarian equivalent) every second day * Have a roast joint or its equivalent once a week * Had to go without heating during the last year through lack of money * Keep the home adequately warm * Buy presents for family or friends at least once a year * Replace any worn out furniture * Have family or friends for a drink or meal once a month * Have a morning, afternoon or evening out in the last fortnight for entertainment

This is not a welfare phenomenon.  Over 22 percent of all those experiencing deprivation are actually in the working force – well over 300,000.

Deprivation 2

The number of people experiencing in-work deprivation has more than trebled since 2008 – more than one-in-five working today.  Over a third of one-income households are in deprivation.  But a substantial number of two-income households also find their living standards marred – one-in-six.

Clearly, having a job is not necessarily a pathway out of poverty.

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elderly

The New Fiscal Enemy Within: The Elderly

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“Old people don’t need companionship. They need to be isolated and studied so that it can be determined what nutrients they have that might be extracted for our personal use.”

- Homer Simpson

The Irish Times published the highlights of a paper produced by the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform (DEPR) purporting to show the latest crisis awaiting us – the crisis of unsustainable public pensions.  DEPR produced some numbers:

  • The number of people aged 65 and over is projected to increase from 570,000 in 2013 to 855,000 in 2026.
  • Spending on the contributory and non-contributory State pension schemes already account for €4.93 billion, or 25 per cent, of the total cost of social protection services.
  • The State could have to provide annual increases in funding of nearly €200 million up to 2026 just to keep pace with the growing elderly demographic.  This means a 50 percent increase in spending on state pensions by 2026

These look like truly scarifying numbers – 50 percent increase in the number of pensioners and 50 percent increase in pension costs.   No wonder the newspaper headline read:

‘Cuts to state pensions “must be considered”

What can we do, short of setting up a kind of Hunger Game for the elderly?  Thankfully, DEPR has some ideas:

  • Cut the weekly pension by €8.50 per week
  • Scrap the €10 weekly top-up for people over the age of 80
  • Bring forward the scheduled dates for raising State pension eligibility
  • Abolish the free TV licence.
  • Means test fuel allowance for new recipients of the Department of Social Protection’s household package of benefits.
  • Abolish free travel passes for spouses and companions of the elderly

Or we could take another route:  increase PRSI contributions and/or cut back on expenditure in other areas (health, education, etc.).  Thankfully, DEPR is on top of things, laying out the painful but necessary reforms (i.e. cuts) necessary to sustain our public pension system.

What does all this add up to?  Rubbish.

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Syriza Comes to Ireland’s (and the Eurozone’s) Rescue

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Everyone in Ireland, regardless of their political orientation or party-political affiliation, should be hoping Syriza wins the upcoming Greek election and forms the next government. Why?  Because their proposals on public debt would be a major boost to Ireland and the Eurozone as a whole.   The headline to Denis Staunton’s excellent article said it best:

‘Why Ireland should support Greek plan to write down euro-zone public debt’

Leave aside your ideological predispositions.  Even Wolfgang Munchau of the Financial Times believes Syriza and Spain’s Podemos are the only parties talking sense about European debt.

Syriza is proposing a European Debt Conference – similar to the one held for Germany after World War II.  And the broad proposals they will bring to the Conference are based on this this paper written by Dimitris P. Sotiropoulos, Yiannis Milios and Spyros Lapatsiora.  In short:

  • The European Central Bank (ECB) acquires a significant part of the outstanding sovereign debt of the Eurozone countries – reducing national debt levels to 50 percent of GDP.
  • These bonds would be converted to zero coupon bonds with a 1 percent discount
  • The countries will buy back the debt when the ratio of those bonds falls to 20 percent of GDP

The impact for Ireland would be dramatic.  In one fell swoop our public debt would be more than halved – reduced from 108 percent of GDP to 50 percent.  This would cut interest payments by approximately half, saving €3.7 billion.  Imagine what we could do with that €3.7 billion every year – increase investment, improve public services, and boost social protection income (even cut taxes if that is your political perspective).  Whatever, this money would constitute a major stimulus programme for Ireland.

It would have a similar effect throughout the Eurozone.  All countries would benefit (with the exception of Estonia, Latvia and Luxembourg; their debt is already below 50 percent).  Over €4 trillion of Eurozone debt would be removed.  With the massive interest payment reductions, the Eurozone would receive a similar stimulus boost.  This would be the best way to escape the looming deflationary crisis.

The authors also hold out the prospect of a further boost, by presenting a slightly different alternative scenario to the one above:  interest payments would be suspended over the first five years and rolled up into the zero coupon bonds. Giving Ireland and the Eurozone a free pass on interest payments over the next five years would have an even more stimulatory and economically-galvanising effect.

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makingendsmeet

The Era of Making Ends Meet

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2015 will be all about making ends meet; or rather, not making ends meet.  Gone are the drama days of the last few years – NAMA, bondholder debt, collapsing employment and output, bailouts and Troikas (unless the EU decision-makers are determined to accelerate the European deflationary spiral; then we could have drama aplenty).  It’s not that these issues have gone away – but they are now embedded, hidden, in what can be called a ‘new normal’.  And this means we are entering into an excruciating and potentially protracted period of grinding things out; day by day.

So many commentators talk about the economy in recovery but ‘people not feeling it yet’.  I suggest there is a better way of looking at it.  The boulder has fallen down the hill – that’s what the gravity of recession will do; that, and austerity pushing it down faster.  Now people are pushing the boulder back uphill – it’s a big boulder and it’s a big hill.  And people are supposed to be ‘feeling it’?  They are supposed to be grateful?  Hmm.

We have discussed other indicators – deprivation, food poverty.  These are harsh benchmarks that affect a significant proportion of the population.  But there is another indicator, referred to as ‘soft’, which gives a more representative picture of this phase we are entering:  making ends meet.  It is called soft because it is not calculated on the basis of percentages of the median wage (relative poverty) or even a survey of people’s concrete experience (deprivation indicators).  It is based on asking people ‘are you having difficulty making ends meet’ – a highly subjective question that doesn’t define ‘difficulty’ or ‘ends’.  It is left to people to determine that.

The EU asks such a question in the annual Survey of Income Living Conditions.  They break it down by degrees:

  • Households making ends meet with great difficulty
  • Households making ends meet with difficulty
  • Households making ends meet with some difficulty

This is the result:

Making Ends Meet 1

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Peter Nyberg Bank Inquiry Evidence, 17 December 2014

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I do not think it is fair to say people partied. People just lived a little better than they otherwise would have done because of the bubble.” Peter Nyberg under questioning from Deputy Pearse Doherty, 17 Dec 2014.

Peter Nyberg’s appearance at the Irish bank inquiry marked the beginning of the context phase, the purpose of which is to set the scene for the causes and consequences of the bank guarantee and bailout. The context part is going to last for a few months, and it may not be until April before the committee starts calling people actually involved in the guarantee decision and its aftermath. So, for those looking for fireworks you may have to be a little bit patient I’m afraid. However, the context phase gives us the opportunity to do what it says – to place the guarantee within a wider framework than that of the personalities involved in the tense meetings of the night of 29 September 2008. It allows us to see the bigger picture; that is, if we want to see it. It is by no means certain that such a road is one that the various actors involved in Irish finance would choose for themselves. Alongside this, the committee is itself working within a context where narratives around the crisis have already been formed, most notably the “asleep at the wheel/regulators/bad apples/nobody understood/auditors/collective psychology” theme. I’ll come back to this later as this is something that popped up during Nyberg’s (quite dry and uninspiring) testimony, but it is worth flagging now because in the search for the truth as to what happened we have to deal with a story that has had six years to bed itself down. The analogy that is closest to explaining what I’m getting at here would be that of a cover story, but it is not as calculated and Machiavellian as that. We’re dealing here with an ideology – Nyberg admits as much in his testimony – and the way that the ideology of modern finance made sense of the world before the crash is the way that it made sense of the world after the crash. It couldn’t grasp the nature of the problem then, and it is incapable of making sense of it now. It knows that the problem was structural, but because it has such a vested interest in the continuation of those structures and practices, it has to find a way of addressing systemic failure without changing the architecture. Its solution, its way of squaring the circle, is to treat the crisis as a managerial problem. Asleep at the wheel / regulators / bad apples / nobody understood / auditors / collective psychology / etc etc etc. What is needed is better managers, better regulators, better auditors. It is a bit like if a car crashes because of faulty brakes, the solution is to find a better driver.

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For Some Vicious Mole of Nature: Making Sense of The Irish Bank Crisis

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God will forgive them.
He’ll forgive them and allow them into Heaven.
I can’t live with that.”

Dead Man’s Shoes (2004)

What are we to make of the Irish Banking Inquiry, which began its public hearings last week. For myself, as I said in Shop Floor in September, I think it provides an opportunity for progressives and we should make use of it.

As to what I mean by that, well, take this quote from a 2012 paper by Gregory Connor, Thomas Flavin and Brian O’Kelly, entitled ‘The U.S. and Irish credit crises: Their distinctive differences and common features’, published in the Journal of International Money and Finance (available as a pdf here).

It is not clear that Anglo Irish Bank represented a systemic risk. Anglo Irish had a limited retail presence; it operated by making large-scale commercial loans funded by institutional borrowing. Other banks may have wanted Anglo Irish included in the government support schemes since, as was subsequently revealed, many developer loans with different banks were secured with the same collateral, creating a complex web that would be difficult and costly to unwind if Anglo Irish alone were allowed to fail.” (Connor et.al. 2012: 63)

The key to the Irish bank guarantee and subsequent sovereign debt crisis is right there in that complex web of developer loans with different banks. That’s the rabbit hole, the one we need to fall into, in order to make sense of this whole mess.

But let us be clear: although the loan book is key, this is not just about developers and their bets.

For example, the loans for commercial property speculation cannot be separated from the tax incentives approved by the Oireachtas and various finance ministers; nor from the legislative and regulatory environment that finance and property speculation demanded of, and received from, the Irish State.

Alongside the finance/speculator/state core lie the professional sectors that benefited hugely from this environment – that is, accountancy, law and real estate.

There is also the issue of the media in Ireland – private and public, the newspapers as well as RTE – which as a sector not only benefited from property speculation via ad revenue, but at a deeper level shared (and continues to share) much of the ideological framework which gave an intellectual sheen to such base and futile speculation.

When we take these dynamics and place them within a historical time-frame, we start to observe a reconfiguration of the Irish State, from the late 1960s to the mid-1990s, which parallels the shift in profit-seeking strategies within Western capital, from production to rentier. Ireland’s role as a comprador state, that stays the same, albeit one that shifts from the grazing fields of Meath to the glass towers of the docklands.

The best way to make sense of a ‘complex web’ of social, political, economic and cultural forces is to apply a relational approach, not a causal one.

A world seen through causality is binary, whereas a relational approach is dynamic – it allows us to see the various forces in motion, bouncing off each other, as they create new tensions and contradictions.

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mbT

If this is a recovery why are people getting poorer?

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On the same day that the CSO reported that the economy grow by 3.5% from a year ago, the Irish Times reported deepening gloom among households with survey respondents reporting decreasing disposable incomes. 45% of people said they were spending more on utility bills, and many others reporting increased costs of transport, healthcare and housing.

How is it both possible for the economy to be expanding at a decent clip yet the population is becoming poorer? Leaving aside the possibility that the population is expanding at a faster pace than the economy (which is not the case here), then either the data is false or all of the benefits of recovery and more are going to a minority of society. Or both.

The reality is that the CSO vastly overstate the improvement in the economy, which in reality is doing little more than bumping along the bottom. At the same time, the austerity policy works to redistribute incomes from poor to rich, from labour to capital, especially unproductive capital such as banks and landlords. If energy bills are rising in real terms incomes are being transferred to them from households. If rents are rising, real incomes are being transferred from tenants to landlords, and so on.

Fake exports, real stagnation

The export-led recovery that is so widely touted by supporters of this government and of austerity generally is a statistical fiction. Over time a number of commentators have pointed to the tax regime as a source of huge distortions to the external accounts. This facilitates the booking of costs, output and profits in this jurisdiction in order to avail of extremely low effective tax rates, way below even the headline rate of 12.5%. Constantin Gurdgiev at True Economics has also shown that this is a key factor in the current inflated level of GDP.

One marker of this distortion to the trade data is that the monthly CSO accounts show total goods exports of €23.2bn in the 3 months of Q3.  Yet the data included in the Quarterly National Accounts show exports at €27.3bn. There is a different methodology for the two pieces of data. But there is a truth gap between the real level of goods exports and reality, which has widened over time. In 2008 the export totals were almost aligned, with the GDP data showing exports just €1.8bn higher for the whole year. Now that annualised discrepancy amounts to €16.4bn. This is greater than the entire recorded improvement in real GDP since the trough of the recession at the end of 2009, which is €15.7bn. Without the fakery of an ‘export-led recovery’, statistically there is no recovery at all.

Because the export data is so distorted, it is important to consider the trends in aggregate domestic demand, which is the sum of household consumption, government consumption and investment (Gross Fixed Capital Formation).

Fig.1 Real Final Domestic Demand, €bn

MB1

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A Mini-Tax-Cutting Budget? Abolish the USC? Can It Get Any Worse?

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Christmas comes early for employers, high-income groups and right-wing ideologues.  The Sunday Times (behind a paywall) reports on demands from Government backbenchers to introduce a mini-budget in an attempt to salvage the Government’s fortunes.  And what would be the centre-piece of such an initiative?  The race is on between Fine Gael and Labour backbenchers over who can make the most outrageous tax cutting promises, including the notion that the Universal Social Charge (USC) be abolished.    Ho-ho-ho.

Let’s first deal with the idea of abolishing the USC.  Who would be the greatest beneficiary?

USC 1

As seen, someone on the minimum wage would get a boost of 2.2 percent in net take-home pay from the abolition of USC.  This rises to over 10 percent for those on €100,000 and it gets even more lucrative for those on very high incomes.  Abolishing the USC would be highly regressive – benefitting those on the highest incomes the most.

But this doesn’t tell the full story as the above refers to headline tax rates.  High income groups can hire an army of accountants to avoid paying large amounts of income tax, inheritance and gift taxes, capital gains tax – exploiting a huge array of reliefs and allowances and other legal tax reduction strategies.  However, that army is defeated when it comes to USC.  There is no getting out of paying it.  So, if anything the benefit to high income groups would be disproportionately higher than the chart above.

Let’s put this in Euros and cents.

USC 2

Someone on the minimum wage would get €7 per week; at the higher end they would get over €350 per week (that’s right, a €16,000 annual tax cut).  From my own, admittedly back-of-the-excel-sheet, calculation, over 46 percent of USC revenue comes from those earning €70,000 or above.  Less than 10 percent of USC revenue comes from those earning less than €30,000.  Guess who wins out in that tax-cut auction.

To be fair, some proponents of abolishing the USC claim that alternative means of getting revenue from high income groups can be introduced.  This is simply not realistic.  USC collects over €4 billion per year.  That’s over one-third of what income tax takes in.  How could you make it up?

  • Increase the top rate of tax from 40 percent to 57 percent.  That would do the trick (though as mentioned above, those who can afford accountants would be able to get around the high marginal tax rates).
  • Abolish tax relief on pension contributions, health insurance and mortgage interest.  However this would only bring in €1.5 billion – or 37 percent of the USC loss.
  • Abolish PAYE tax relief.  This would raise €2.8 billion – still, far short of the USC loss.  And every worker above the income tax threshold would lose €1,650, wiping out gains for all low and average income earners.
  • Increase VAT to nearly 30 percent.

There are other measures such as a wealth tax which the Nevin Economic Research Institute estimates could raise €250 and €500 million.  You could toss in increases on capital income (inheritance, capital gains) but there’s a limit.  Of course, there’s a real loss here.  Instead of using the additional revenue from wealth and capital taxes to invest in social housing, education and health, we would only be clawing back a tax break that we gave to higher earners in the first place.

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Don’t Mind What’s Going On – Feel The Spin

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You’d think there would be concern among commentators about the latest GDP numbers produced by the CSO.  After all, a quarterly growth of 0.1 percent is not that far from negative growth.  Or that consumer spending has fallen in the last two quarters (an interesting contrast to all those feel good anecdotes about increased consumer confidence).  Or that the explosion in export growth doesn’t quite tally with global trends or even other numbers produced by the CSO.

But there’s a class of commentators who are determined to cheerlead regardless. Michael Hennigan gives a flavour of these – with economists talking up the ‘fastest growing economy’ in the EU.  Sure, why not.

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Tweedledum Tax Cuts vs. Tweedledee Tax Cuts

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Apparently the Government, if not having an outright row, is at least engaging in a ‘strong debate and discussion’.  What’s it about?

  • The introduction of a Living Wage and associated reforms such as abolition of zero-hour contracts and minimum wage increase?
  • A comprehensive affordable childcare network – with savings of €400 to €500 per month for families with young children?
  • Universal access to free community health services – such as GP visits, outpatient services and heavily-subsidised prescription medicine?
  • Maybe a debt-relief programme – not only for households in arrears, but also for those caught in the terrible debt spiral of money-lenders and their interest rates which can exceed 100 percent?
  • Or a guarantee of an adequate income and home-help services for all people in retirement?  Or additional supports, such as a ‘cost-of-disability’ supplement for disabled women and men – of whom 50 percent are officially described as living in material deprivation?
  • Or a major drive to reduce rents in the private rented sector – through rent freezes combined with a new public enterprise drive to directly deliver quality, affordable rental units to private tenants?
  • Is the row about any of these or something similar (like eliminating all education-related costs such as school-books, transport, ‘voluntary fees’)?

No.

It is about which tax cuts the Government should pursue.  Good grief.

Let’s call it for what this is.  First, this is a deeply disingenuous debate – ‘my-tax-cuts-are-better-than your tax cuts’.  No Government Minister, TD, or candidate should be allowed to come to the doorstep, seeking votes by claiming ‘we can cut your taxes and still deliver European-style living standards – income supports, public services, economic and social investment’.  To make such claims is either hypocritical or completely indifferent to how the real world operates.

Living Standards 1

Second, tax cuts will undermine the next government’s ability to actually improve people’s living standards – affordable childcare, affordable rents, reduced public transport fares, free and comprehensive primary health care, real free education, etc.  Let’s not forget that Irish living standards are closer to Greece’s than it is to most other EU-15 countries.  Question:  how will a couple of extra Euros close this gap?

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Now Let Us Plot the Great Social Expansion

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Are we getting into election mode? We have Government Ministers promising every tax cut possible while warning of the pestilence that will descend upon us if anyone else gets elected to office. No doubt, parties are preparing their election manifestos, poster and leaflet designs, and candidate strategies. Good luck to some of them.

We know what the Government parties intend to do – pursue real spending austerity as identified here. They will cut primary expenditure (excluding interest) by 9 percent, public services by 8 percent and investment by an incredible 15 percent in real terms; that is, after inflation. They will do this in pursuit of an economically reckless, socially callous and fiscally irresponsible and unnecessary goal: eliminate the deficit by 2018. In fact, they intend to run a small surplus. We have an investment crisis, a poverty crisis, an enterprise crisis (in the indigenous sector), and a public service infrastructure degraded after six years of irrational austerity. Yet the Government intends to stand idly by while it pursues budget fundamentalism.

Fiscal Space 1

However, while they have outlined what they intend to do with expenditure (cut it in real terms), they have not revealed their taxation policies. They’re projections are based on ‘no change of policy’. If they reduce taxation – and maintain their deficit elimination target – they will have to cut spending even further. But they’re hiding that little scenario.

The Government hopes to trap progressive parties and independents. They will say ‘if you want to increase expenditure, you will have to raise taxes’. They will accuse progressives of wanting to increase taxes on workers. Given that workers have suffered falling real wages while at the same time seen the effective tax rate increase by nearly 25 percent since the start of the crisis (never mind the cuts in income support such as Child Benefit) any hint of increased taxes is not likely to be met with hurrahs.

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Deprivation Nation

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Ireland is a deprivation nation.

All manner of numbers and stats regarding growth and employment numbers are thrown around which feeds into the illusion of the ‘Celtic Phoenix’.  But there is a grim reality – which doesn’t feature much in the popular debate:  we are a society riddled with high levels of poverty and deprivation.  And recent EU Commission data shows we have much higher levels than most other comparable EU countries.

We are familiar with the CSO’s deprivation measurement.  This based on people experiencing at least two of eleven deprivation experiences (unable to afford food, heating, clothes, etc.).   On this basis, they estimate that over one million people – or 28 percent of the population – experience multiple deprivation experiences and, so, are categorised as living in deprivation conditions.

The EU Commission uses two measurementsmaterial deprivation’ and ‘severe material deprivation’.  These are harsher benchmarks than what the CSO uses (they both work off the same database – the EU Survey of Income and Living Conditions).  The EU Commission use nine deprivation experiences in which people cannot afford to

  • Pay their rent, mortgage or utility bills
  • Keep their home adequately warm
  • Face unexpected expenses
  • Eat meat or proteins regularly
  • Go on holiday
  • Own a television set
  • Own a washing machine
  • Own a car
  • Own a telephone

For the EU Commission, ‘material deprivation’ measures the percentage of the population that cannot afford three of the nine items.  ‘Severe material deprivation’ measures the percentage that cannot afford four of the items.

How does Ireland compare to other EU-15 countries?

Deprivation Nation 1

This is pretty staggering.  While it is not surprising to see Greece with the highest level of material deprivation, Ireland is right up there at the top – marginally behind Italy but ahead of poorer countries like Portugal and Spain.  Material deprivation in Ireland is 58 percent higher than the EU-15 average.

  • There are over 1.1 million people in Ireland living in material deprivation – a quarter of the population.

When we turn to ‘severe’ material deprivation (remember – that is experiencing four out of the nine indicators above), we see a similar pattern.

Deprivation Nation 2

Ireland remains in third place – behind Greece and Italy – and over 33 percent above the EU-15 average.

  • There are 450,000 people in Ireland living in ‘severe’ material deprivation – or one-in-ten people.

The growth in the number of people suffering deprivation has been substantial.  Between 2007 and 2012, the numbers increased from 450,000 to over 1.1 million – doubling in the space of five years.  There is a similar pattern among those suffering from ‘severe’ material deprivation – rising from 190,000 to over 450,000 – again, more than doubling.

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Trailing Behind Europe in Employment Growth

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Here’s a quick post:  Had an interesting and informative twitter exchange with Tom Healy, Director of the Nevin Economic Research Institute and Dan O’Brien from the Sunday Independent on foot of the CSO’s release of new job numbers.

Jobs growth in the third quarter was 10,400 seasonally adjusted.  For the same period last year it was nearly 18,000 but we know there are serious flaws in 2013 employment figures given the CSO’s warnings about the impact of their revision of their sampling base.

So, 10,000 jobs growth; for the year it is 15,400.  This is better than a loss and going in the right direction.  But is it going fast enough?  It it well balanced across all sectors?  Is the glass half-full or half-empty.

What was interesting in the twitter exchange was how we compared to EU jobs growth.   The fact is that our jobs growth this year fares poorly with the rest of the EU. The data we have goes up to the 2nd quarter of this year.

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