Irish Economy

70sirjohnrogersonsquay2

Welcome to the New Tax Avoidance Scheme, Same as the Old Tax Avoidance Scheme

, , No Comment

Well, not quite – but the effect may be the same.  Many international commentators welcomed the Irish Government for ending the infamous ‘double-Irish’ tax scheme.  But just as it shut this down, it announced a new scheme: a ‘knowledgedevelopment box’ designed to reduce corporate taxation to a little over six percent.

The ‘knowledge-development box’ is based on the concept of the patent box used by the UK and the Netherlands to attract multi-nationals with preferential tax rates on income flowing from patenting activity.  However, the scope for the Irish box could be wider.

After all, what exactly does ‘knowledge-development’ encompass?  In the UK and the Netherlands, companies get a tax break on income generated from inventions.  In Ireland, we may see all manner of activities thrown in – source code, copyrights, patents, branding, trademarks and that expandable concept – R&D.  And we’ll have to wait and see to what extent it facilitates more than just actual activity in Ireland (will it encompass activity ‘managed from Ireland’).

The Government was keen not only to put in a replacement for the double-Irish scheme, but to reassure key multi-nationals.  Government officials briefed ‘multinational investors’ on the rationale for the Government’s policy (question:  were any of you included in a conference call by officials prior to the establishment of the water charge?).  The message was clear: the Government may have been forced to abandon the double-Irish due to considerable international pressure – but don’t panic; a replacement is at hand.

It is argued that we need multi-national capital to create high-end employment in the global supply chain.  No one disputes this.  Ireland’s indigenous economy, even with the best policies in place, would not have created the pharmaceutical sector we have today.  However, this common-sense observation is then used to argue that the only way to achieve this is to pursue our current accommodative corporate tax regime (that’s a nice way to describe a tax haven-conduit).  Yes, we have another roll-out of TINA – there is no alternative.

But are there alternative approaches to attracting multi-national enterprises without resorting to tax tricks or ultra-low tax rates?  Does Ireland benefit more than our peer-group EU countries from multinational employment?  This argument – that we have been more successful than other countries in attracting multi-national jobs – has been restated so many times that it is taken as gospel.  But is it true?

Read Post →

thumb1

Austerity is Over? Now Back to the Real World

, , No Comment

Headlines and sound-bites abound: ‘austerity is over’, ‘the beginning of the end of austerity’, ‘we beat austerity’ and so on and whatever and sure, why not.

Let’s cut to the chase: austerity is not over. It is entering a new phase. We will now experience austerity ‘below the waterline’. Austerity by stealth, austerity beneath the radar: give it any description but have no doubts. We will continue to suffer austerity, probably up to the end of the decade.

You don’t have to believe me – just look at the Government’s own projections. They clearly show what is in store. And it is not pretty.

The following comes from the Budget 2015 Full Report (Table A.2.2, page 99). In this table the Government projects their spending plans out to 2018. You’ll see that spending pretty much flat-lines, with some slight downward pressure, up to 2018. However, this is what’s called the ‘nominal’ spend – the actual Euros and cents. To get a real world sense you have to factor in inflation.

The Government provides the inflation or deflator figures in Table 5. They estimate that inflation (for the economy, the inflation figure is the GDP deflator) will be over six percent up to 2018. Therefore, public spending – if it is to maintain its value – must rise by that amount. If it falls below that figure, we have a real cut; if it rises above that figure, we have a real increase. So what do we find?

realincrease1

Primary expenditure excludes interest payments; therefore, it is the total spending on public services, social transfers and investment, with other small categories such as subsidies. We find that total real spending will fall by over six percent by 2018.

In regards to public services (estimated on the basis of figures produced in Table A.2.1 on page 97), we find that real spending will fall by five percent. That’s five percent less than we have today to fund schools, hospitals, policing, transportation, enterprise supports – all our public services. That is going to put a real squeeze on the breadth and quality of our services.

As to investment – the key to long-term growth – the Government intends to cut its spending by nearly 13 percent. This will undermine our infrastructural and business capacity. We will fall further behind our trading partners (and competitors) who are investing far more than us. Of all cuts this is the most irrational from an economic growth point of view.

But there’s another twist to this. For populations do not remain static. Our population is estimated by the IMF to grow by over three percent up to 2018 – which means more people to provide services and income supports to. So if we take the real spending cuts above and break them down on a per capita basis what do we get?

realincrease2

It is worse. Now overall real primary spending falls by nearly 10 percent, with public services falling by over eight percent and investment taking an even bigger hit.

Read Post →

water_chargesT

A New Kind of Trade Unionism Emerging

, , No Comment

This article was originally posted on the Trade Union Left Forum on the 14th of October.

A new kind of trade unionism is emerging and consolidating itself within the right2water campaign, led by Mandate and Unite and supported by OPATSI, the CPSU, and the CWU. These unions are bringing the broader social and economic interests of their members to the fore and committing resources, time and effort to support mobilisation not only of members, but also the working class and communities more generally.

By viewing their members as workers (as opposed to people paying a subscription for work-place representation services) these unions are placing the workers’ immediate social demands alongside, and equal to, their immediate work-place concerns. This is crucial if the trade union movement is to really represent its members and to recover its power and leverage in society. Wage increases alone will not improve the lot of workers while the political economy of the country is being restructured from one made up of citizens to one of customers in a toll-booth economic and political structure.

The TULF on many occasions has suggested that the trade union movement has a unique position in Ireland in having the resources and channels of communication to support the mobilisation of working people in a way that no left party can. And now it seems that some unions are realising this potential, which is both necessary and welcome.

The right2water alliance is a genuine alliance of union, political and community groups, making a clear demand and statement, “calling for the Government to recognise and legislate for access to water as a human right. We are demanding the Government abolish the planned introduction of water charges.”

As well as the five unions mentioned, community groups and parties have signed up to the campaign. Some 40,000 people have signed a petition calling for the scrapping of the water charges, close to 100,000 marched at the demonstration on 11 October, and more local actions are planned for 1 November.

The right2water campaign is not dictating tactics to communities or individuals but is building and growing a broad campaign of groups and people based on the principle of water as a human right and as a publicly owned utility and resource. Some on the left have attacked the campaign for not demanding non-payment; but at this moment building the biggest, broadest alliance against water charges and privatisation is the priority. A turn towards direct non-payment may be necessary in the future, but right now the campaign’s strength is in growing and building the alliance rather than splintering over tactical matters.

Read Post →

bus

The ‘Taxes’ on Living Standards the Government Won’t Be Addressing

, , No Comment

With all this talk about taxation and Budget 2015 (and one of the few doing any plain talking is Fr. Peter McVerry – calling tax cuts for high-income earners ‘outrageous’) there are ‘taxes’ that people pay that the Government will do little, if anything, to address. Indeed, the budget will be framed in a way that undermines the Government’s ability to provide relief against these ‘taxes’.  What am I talking about?

We automatically assume that ‘taxes’ are something the Government levies.  Therefore, when we discuss ‘tax relief’ or ‘tax cuts’, we refer to reductions in things like income tax, USC, PRSI or VAT, though the latter doesn’t feature much.

However, there are ‘taxes’ that people pay when the Government fails to provide the services and income supports it should – if one accepts that we are a modern European state.  We can call these ‘taxes on living standards’.

Take, for instance, childcare:  in Ireland, a household can pay up to €800 a month and more for a childcare place.  In most other continental countries, childcare can cost as little as €150 per month and even less for the low-paid.  Why the difference?  In other European countries, childcare is financed through the public sector, usually local authorities.  In Ireland, people are forced on to the private market.  This is quite ‘taxing’ for these households.

If the Government rolled out affordable childcare, households with children could expect reductions of up to €500 to €600 a month – or thousands of Euros a year.  This reduction in childcare fees (‘taxes’ for those in need of this vital service) would be greater than any income tax cut.

Or take another example – public transport.  In other countries, public transport receives a high level of public subvention, or subsidy.  This ensures expanded services and affordable fares.  In Ireland, public transport receives an extremely small subvention.

Read Post →

1

What is Going On in the Irish Economy?

, , 8 Comments

After a deep recession, after years of stagnation, the Irish economy is growing in leaps in bounds.  The ESRI is projecting by 10 percent growth over this year and next.  These are almost boom-time growth rates.  Should we be a bit wary?

It’s hard to disagree with the ESRI’s Dr. John Fitzgerald when he wrote:

‘ . . . the standard EU harmonised national accounts are not a satisfactory framework for understanding what is happening in the Irish economy.’

This is primarily due to the impact of multi-nationals and the IFSC which can give a false reading of headline.  Let’s go through some of these categories and then come back to the question:  how satisfactory or reliable are the national accounts and growth projections based on those accounts.  This is a bit long and may be a tad technical in parts but hopefully you can stay with it:  it tells a story about how a story is being told – and it is the telling we should be wary of.

Multi-nationals and the GDP

Everyone knows that GDP is not the best measurement of the Irish economy.  But it’s not just because multi-nationals make profits here and then repatriate them (that is, take out of the country).  The reality is that the profits are not made here but are counted here.  Let’s look at two key sectors where multinationals dominate:  manufacturing and information & communication (the latter is where the Apples and Googles would be located). Note:  this is data supplied by the Irish Government to the EU.

Whatsgoingon1

Profits in Irish manufacturing nearly 8 times that of other EU-15 countries; in the Information & communication sector, it is over 3 times.  Clearly, these are not profits generated by employees in Ireland; they are generated in other economies and ‘imported’ here to take advantage of our low tax rate and our position in the global tax-avoidance chain.

The point here is that our GDP is distorted by multi-national profit-shifting – and that’s before you start taking account profit-repatriation.

Well, Then, We Can Use GNP

Well, no, that isn’t a satisfactory measurement either.  GNP is just the GDP after you take account of money flowing in and out of the country (and more money leaves Ireland than comes in).  Therefore, GNP is still distorted by the multi-nationals’ profit shifting that we saw above.

We can’t be certain if the ‘fake profits’ that appear in our GDP are automatically taken out by multi-nationals.  They may be retained or swim around the IFSC pool (don’t forget that US companies avoid US tax by keeping their money abroad). And not all money flowing out of the country are repatriated profits – they can be interest payments, indigenous multi-nationals investing abroad and households sending money out of the country.

Read Post →

sq_middle

Squeezing the Middle

, , No Comment

So the Government wants to give relief to the squeezed middle.

‘Taoiseach Enda Kenny has said easing the tax pressure on the “squeezed middle” will be a priority in the upcoming budget.’

The very first question is:  who exactly is the Taoiseach referring to?  The squeezed middle is an amorphous and infinitely elastic concept that can apply to just about anyone you want it to.  Let’s try and get a handle on this much-talked about but rarely defined group using the latest Revenue Commissioners statistical report.

Let’s define the squeezed middle as the middle 60 percent – between the lower and upper 20 percent group.  Remember, this doesn’t refer to everyone, just those in the workforce.  It excludes those without a job (pensioners, the sick and disabled, the unemployment, lone parents, etc.).

income_range

We can see that, according to the Revenue distribution tables, the middle 60 percent of earners have incomes between €8,700 and €51,300.  However, there is a big caveat here.  Couples where both spouses and civil partners are working are counted as one tax unit.  This means that while in the tables, a tax unit will show an income of €60,000 – this actually means the combined income of two people.  So they may both be earning well below the average income.

We can adjust for this but we have to make assumptions.  To breakdown the one tax unit where there are two people working, I assume that one spouse / civil partner earns 60 percent of the total, while the other earns 40 percent.  When this is done, the revised income range looks something like this.

revised_income_range

This is just an estimate (other might come up with slightly different numbers, working with this data – but it won’t change all that much).  However, looking at the two charts there are three striking things:

  • First, there are many in the squeezed middle that earn very little.  They will be low-paid, part-time, and underemployed (or precarious workers).
  • Second, those earning over €42,400 are in the top 20 percent   (€51,300 using the unrevised chart)
  • Third, between 64 and 73 percent of those in the squeezed middle (depending on which chart you use) are taxed at the standard rate, the marginal rate or are exempt.

A substantial number of the squeezed middle do not earn enough to pay income tax or earn below the top tax rate threshold – so any income tax cuts, never mind cutting the top rate of tax, will have no impact whatsoever.  Is this the group that the Taoiseach is referring to?

Read Post →

water_charges2

No Easy Victories

, , 4 Comments

The campaign for the Right2Water in Ireland is rapidly growing in strength and confidence. Working class communities have been staging determined and inspiring protests to prevent the installation of water meters in their areas, the best of the trade union movement has mobilised to help support and coordinate these efforts at the national level and the Irish political left has rallied to the cause. In response to the growth of the movement, the Irish State has let loose its dogs of war. As a result of which recent days have witnessed heavy handed and provocative policing from An Garda Síochána, concentrated mainly in Edenmore, Donaghmede and Coolock.

Footage of Gardai man handling women and minors, and generally trying to intimidate and bully peaceful protestors has emerged. Many protestors have reacted to this with dismay, and believe that the Gardai are in breach of their “oath” because of the way in which they are trying to force through the installation of unwanted meters. This idea that the Gardai are acting abnormally ties into other quasi-legal arguments within the movement about the need for “consent” to be liable to pay the water charges and related matters.

As the movement grows in strength, it is important, also, that its energies be focused, so with that in mind it seems right to dispel some of the misconceptions about the role of the law, and the police, in the struggle for the right to water. The movement and campaign for the Right2Water is the most electrifying and significant development in Irish politics for some years, but in order for it to reach its full potential we should heed Amilcar Cabral’s advice that we ‘tell no lies. Expose lies whenever they are told. Mask no difficulties, mistakes, failures [and] Claim no easy victories’. By dispelling some of the appealing, but ultimately unhelpful, arguments swirling around the movement, it will be possible to move forward in a more determined, focused and effective manner.

Read Post →

LivingWage

Mark Fielding Speaks to the Nation: We Don’t Owe You Squat

, , No Comment

In the excellent Irish Times series on the Living Wage, Mark Fielding, Director of ISME (Irish Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises) has put it bluntly to workers and the nation:

‘It’s not our responsibility to give someone a living wage.’

That’s telling them, Mark. You want a wage that can afford you a minimum adequate standard income, don’t come to us. Not our problem. Be lucky to have a job – if we decide to hire you.

This is Thatcherism Irish-style. There is no such thing as society, only Mark’s members. But to be fair to Mark, he’s got form on this issue.

‘ISME chief executive Mark Fielding called on the Government to scrap the minimum wage . . . He said the minimum wage had failed to benefit the low paid . . . ‘

So scrapping the minimum wage would ‘help’ the lower paid. Hmmm.

Mark is at pains to explain the extraordinary burden his members suffer:

‘The minimum wage is €8.65. But it’s really €9.68, when you take into account employers’ PRSI contributions.’

Oh, my – a wage floor of €9.68 per hour. That sounds really bad. Workers in our hospitality sector (hotels and restaurants) must be really costing Irish employers a bomb – especially in comparison to other EU-15 countries. But is this the case?

hos_sectOur labour costs (made up almost exclusively of wages and employers’ PRSI) are far lower than most other EU countries in the graph. Labour costs would have to rise by 27 percent just to reach the mean average; they would have to rise by over 50 percent to reach French levels.

Of course, this data (the latest from Eurostat) is from 2011. Maybe Mark is worried about recent trends in low-paid sectors. Let me put his mind at ease. Irish labour costs in hospitality rose by 1.3 percent up to 2013; in the EU they rose by 3.2 percent. We’re even further behind.

That a representative from a business organisation would give out about wages, or paying higher wages, or even paying a decent wage is nothing new or unexpected. However, this ‘whether-people-can-live-on-the-wage-I-pay-has-nothing-to-do-with-me’ position got me to thinking: do all employers think like this? Would they all agree?

It’s hard to say in this country where the debate is dominated, loudly and persistently, by so many Mark Fieldings. But it is interesting to take a look at business organisations overseas, in the US, where such groups are no slouch when it comes to promoting their economic interests.

Read Post →

irishwaterT

Demanding the Future: The Right2Water and Another Ireland

, , No Comment

This article was originally posted on Critical Legal Thinking on the 29th of September.

The American abolitionist Frederick Douglass once observed that if you find out ‘just what any people will quietly submit to … you have found out the exact measure of injustice and wrong which will be imposed upon them’ and that such injustices ‘will continue till they are resisted with either words or blows, or with both’. In Ireland, after six years of austerity and regressive tax reforms that have punished Irish working people for the benefit of Irish and European bond holders, it seems the Irish establishment may have finally discovered the measure of injustice that the people will not tolerate.

The Irish government is currently implementing a plan to install water meters, so that people’s domestic water usage can be monitored and they can be charged for the amount they use. In this way they are abandoning the traditional funding model for water provision in Ireland, which saw it paid for out of general taxation. This move by the Irish government is consistent with a global trend over the last twenty years towards the increased commodification of essential services, with water seen as a particularly lucrative market. Taking advantage of the economic crisis, as most governments in Europe have, the Irish government has accelerated a broad neoliberal policy drive (privatisation of services, cuts to public sector jobs, regressive taxes) under the well-worn mantra that “There Is No Alternative”.

However, this new tax–this commodification of an essential public good–is being met with trenchant resistance from working class communities throughout the island. From Crumlin to Togher, Edenmore to Caherdavin, communities have mobilised to prevent the installation of water meters in their areas. In these protests the community activists have remained resolute in the face of attempts at intimidation from both the company established to commodify the water service, Irish Water, and the police. As well as engaging in direct action to prevent the installation of meters, the bourgeoning movement is also encouraging a boycott of the attempts by Irish Water to enrol residents as “customers”, and calling for non-payment of any future bills.

Read Post →

111t

IBEC’s Myth Debunking is Just Bunk

, , No Comment

IBEC has published a paper entitled ‘Debunking Irish income tax myths’.  At its core it contains misleading, highly selective and ultimately disingenuous arguments.  In short, it is bunk.  Let’s go through one of their main arguments and see where they are misinforming the debate.

Personal Taxation – It is Lower than the EU Average

IBEC puts forward two graphs (Figures 2 and 3) to show that Irish personal taxation is much higher than in the EU-27.  This is an audacious presentation.  They use data selectively and exclude large parts of personal taxation.

(a)  Using GDP and GNP

IBEC produced the following calculations.

111According to IBEC, this proves that Irish personal taxation is higher than the average of the EU.  They further claim, that on these numbers, Irish ‘taxpayers’ are paying €3 billion more than the EU average on a proportional basis.  The problem is that they are not comparing ‘personal taxation’; they are comparing income tax.
They exclude a large portion of personal taxation; namely, social insurance or PRSI.  In almost all other European countries, PRSI plays a much greater role than income tax.  In the EU, PRSI makes up 37 percent of total personal taxation; in Ireland, it makes up only 12 percent.  In seven countries, revenue from PRSI is higher than revenue from income tax.  In the Netherlands, income tax raises €46 billion; social insurance, however, raises €63 billion.

Not only did IBEC ‘mould’ the data around the conclusions they wanted, they also mixed the measurements to suit their argument.  When comparing GDP, they used an ‘arithmetic’ average for the EU.  However, when using GNP, they used a ‘weighted’ average.  The difference is that in the former, you average the individual percentage of each country; in the latter you add up all countries together and calculate the average. It allows IBEC to claim that income tax makes up 7.8 percent of GDP (arithmetic) whereas using the weighted measurement gives a figure of 9.4 percent.

Here’s the actual data – using the weighted average.  All comparative data below is from Eurostat’s Taxation Trends in the European Union 2014.

IBEC 2

On all these measurements, Ireland is well below average.  On GDP we’re below, but we know that much of our GDP is multi-national froth.  Using the Fiscal Council’s hybrid-GDP (which compromises between GDP and GNP), we’re still below average.  Even when using GNI which is essentially GNP, we remain below, though less so.

If we use adjusted GDP we’d have to pay €3.6 billion more in personal taxation – income tax and PRSI combined.  However, this isn’t the best measurement.

(b)  A More Robust Measurement
There’s a problem in using GDP and GNP.  If, after years of recession and austerity, GDP and GNP are depressed, then you will probably not be comparing like-with-like with countries that didn’t have such an experience (or not in the degree we had).
There is a better measurement: the effective personal taxation rate.  This is the total amount of personal taxation revenue as a percentage of total wages and salaries.  The following is for employees (measuring the tax rate for self-employed is difficult as the data on self-employed income is limited) though it covers 83 percent of all those in work.

Read Post →

ft_larget

Investment Remains the Key to a Real Recovery

, , No Comment

The Irish recession which began in the final quarter of 2007 is the most severe in the history of the state. GDP contracted by 12.1% in a little over two years ending in the 4th quarter of 2009. That slump is not over. The latest data shows that the economy still remains 3.4% below its pre-recession peak. In effect it is likely to take 5 years or more simply to recover the output that was lost in the slump.

Even then, the economy will remain way below its previous trend rate of growth. This is illustrated in Fig 1 below, which shows real GDP and real GNP from 1997 to the present. The average annual growth rate of the Irish economy from 1997 to 2007 was approximately 6%. Maintaining the trend rate of growth would have led the economy to be approximately 50% larger than it is currently, and there is a danger that this potential is lost permanently.

Fig.1 Medium-Term GDP & GNP

Fig.1 Medium-Term GDP & GNP

The causes of the slump are very clear. Over the entire period of the crisis the fall in investment more than accounts for the entirety of the decline in aggregate measures of output, either GDP or GNP. GDP in the 2nd quarter of 2014 is still €6.6bn below its late 2007 peak. Investment (Gross Fixed Capital Formation, GFCF) is €14.4bn below its peak. There are other compoents of GDP which have also failed to recover, notably personal consumption and government expenditure. But even taken together, their combined fall of €10.1bn is less than the fall in investment. The only component of GDP which has risen is net exports. The change in components of GDP is shown in Fig.2 below.

Fig.2 GDP & Components In the Slump. Source: CSO

Fig.2 GDP & Components In the Slump. Source: CSO

This data belies the notion that there is an ‘export-led recovery’ under way. Recorded net exports have grown very strongly, up €30.5bn over the period. But only one quarter of this or €7.4bn is a rise in the export of goods. A much larger statistical contribution has arisen from the decline in the imports of goods, down €14.6bn. As both investment and consumption have fallen, this simply suggests that both firms and households have been priced out of world markets by reduced purchasing power. The remainder of the rise in net exports is derived from international trade in services. These are particularly prone to the tax-induced flow of funds that plague the Irish economy and completely distort the economic data. There is little benefit from attempting to unravel them.

More importantly, it is clear that exports have not led a broad-based recovery at all. All the main domestic indicators of activity, consumption, government spending and investment are still far below their pre-recession peaks.

Read Post →

111

Appreciating Facts

, , Comment Closed

Last night on Prime Time Brendan Burgess, from Ask About Money, stated that high-income earners in Ireland pay more tax than high earners in other countries.

‘We have a very low direct tax economy in this country for the lower and the middle paid and very high taxes for the upper paid.  And that’s something people don’t appreciate.  And they need to appreciate that.’

Let’s do some appreciation.  Are we a ‘very low’ direct tax economy?  Direct, or personal, taxes include income taxes, social insurance (PRSI) and other taxes on income such as Ireland’s Universal Social Charge or Germany’s surtax.

111a

We are low-tax, well below a lot of other countries.  But we are not that far behind the EU-15 weighted average, not that far behind ‘high-tax’ Sweden and ahead of another ‘high-tax’ economy, France.  So I don’t know that I would call it ‘very low’ but we certainly should be doing better.

But what about that ‘very high taxes for the upper paid’?  We don’t have ‘effective’ tax rates for different income groups to compare (that is, the tax rate when all reliefs and deductions are taken into account).  We only have ‘headline’ tax rates – which only include basic reliefs like personal tax credits.  But the following headline tax rates come from the OECD Benefit and Wages database.  The highest level of income for Ireland in the database is €119,000 (a couple, both working) so I’ll use that to compare with the same level of income in other countries.

111b

Headline tax rates on Irish high-earners are well below most other countries.  If they were living in Germany they’d be paying €11,000 more in income taxes and social insurance.

There is caveat in this.  In Ireland, taxpayers get relief on pension contributions, mortgage interest, health insurance and a rake of business investments.  Do taxpayers have access to the same level of reliefs and allowances?  More?  Less?  We don’t have easily accessible comparable data.  (Also, the tax rate for Italy in the above chart is for €107,000 – the highest level of income in the OECD database).

However, when looking at headline rate, Irish high-earners are not over-taxed in comparative terms.

And there are some further explanations needed (the type of explanations that rarely get a hearing on current affairs programmes).  Take the example of Sweden.  The chart above shows Swedish headline rates lower than Ireland.  In the first total direct taxation chart, Sweden is only slightly above Ireland.  Some might find this surprising since we all think of Sweden as high-taxed.

Read Post →

GCIThumb

The Loneliness of a Low-Tax, Low-Wage Economy

, , Comment Closed

The new Global Competitiveness Report is out. This is produced by the World Economic Forum (the crowd that occupies Davos once a year). It purports to rank countries by their business competitiveness. Ireland was ranked 25 in 2014. Last year we were ranked 28. Our competitiveness has improved. Yawn.

The rankings are based on a number of indicators – infrastructure, taxation, business efficiency, labour market, ease of doing business, etc. The rankings are compiled based upon a survey of 13,000 ‘business leaders’ throughout the world. So it is subjective – opinions formed by the executives of multi-nationals and large companies. You can only imagine what they might think. They’d probably give gold stars to countries that have hardly any tax, any wage, and require workers to bow every time the owner’s son drives by.

GCI1a

But actually, no. These captains of industry and finance actually like (or don’t dislike) high-tax, high-spend, high-regulated economies – everything that we have been told is bad for our economic health. Here’s how our peer group – small open economies in the EU-15 – rank in competitiveness.

All the other small open economies are ranked higher than Ireland. Two of the countries are ranked in the top 10 in the world – Finland and Sweden. Let’s go through some of the economic sins as written down in the orthodox bible and see how the different countries fare (taxation data is taken from Eurostat’s Taxation Trends).

Read Post →

www

Open Season on Workers (Again)

, , Comment Closed

The Sunday Business Post ran four stories last weekend- including a front-page banner headline – attacking not only public sector workers’ living standards, but workers in public enterprise as well.

Semi-States Enjoy Pay Increases During the Recession

Sitting Pretty in the Semi-States

Public Sector:  the Insider Story

The Special Protections of the Semi-States

The Sunday Business Post is determined to outdo the Sunday Independent in public sector worker bashing.

And the most interesting thing about these articles is that they are based on a survey and a reading of wage numbers that are not only completely wrong – but make the most basic statistical mistakes.  This is poor analysis, masquerading as informed commentary.  Let’s look at some of the claims and see where they went off the rails (unfortunately the SBP is behind a paywall).

The SBP Survey on Public Enterprise Wages

The SBP did a survey.  It purported to show the average wage in a number of public enterprises for 2009 and 2013.  From this they deduced whether the average wage rose or fell.  Here’s what their survey found.

Read Post →