New Statesman | David Blanchflower | Hold on tight, it’s the double-dip
New Statesman | David Blanchflower | Hold on tight, it’s the double-dip
But why has the UK labour market outperformed the US, where unemployment has risen to over 10 per cent? Wages are not more flexible in the UK and the shock has been greater over here, because of the relatively large size of the financial sector and the greater rise in house prices. Spending has been helped in the UK by the high proportion of tracker mortgage-holders, who have benefited from low interest rates. But this will go into reverse when rates are increased. We entered recession after the US and will likely emerge later, and there is probably quite a lot more pain to come on the jobs front when the fiscal stimulus is removed. I hope I am wrong.
In his New Year message, the director general of the CBI, Richard Lambert, noted that many businesses are still worried about the possibility of a double-dip recession and what that would mean for jobs. So am I.
